The country, which is in a fourth wave of the pandemic, has seen gas prices rise due to the uncertainty around demand as the resurgence in the virus threatened economies from fully reopening. Prices reached as high as $1.74 per litre in Vancouver in July.
But with the average price of Canadian gas sitting around $1.40 per litre as of Wednesday, one petroleum analyst thinks Canadians might be in for some relief come fall.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.com, told Global News that with oil producers switching to cheaper winter fuel blends as of Sept. 16, Canadians might see prices slide to under $1.35, or as low as $1.25 on average, as we head into October and November.
“Or even in an optimal situation, maybe even getting down to a $1.20, but I don’t see much more relief than that yet,” he said.
“Of course, there’s a lot that could change the course of declines.”
One of those changes could be another hurricane, he said. Hurricane Ida’s destruction in the southern U.S. forced the closure of several oil refineries, which pushed Canadian prices up after averaging at $1.35 last week.
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On Wednesday, the most expensive gas was in British Columbia, which averaged around $1.54, while the cheapest was in Saskatchewan with prices floating around $1.31, according to GasBuddy.com.
Another change to watch out for is how the pandemic plays out in Canada and other major oil-consuming countries like the United States and China, De Haan said.
“Though Canada is very much aligned with the U.S. on its COVID response, if the U.S. deviates and say, for example, the U.S. shuts down and Canada does not, that’s going to make a bigger shockwave,” he said.
“So watch what happens in China with the response to COVID. India is another large oil consumer and the U.S. I would watch what OPEC does — if they shift their policy and of course, the overall global economy.”
Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International Inc., is split on the issue.
He said while Canadian prices follow those in the United States, it’s hard to predict what price points could be in the fall.
“I do the gasoline predictions for the next day every day of the week, and I know what factors go into that price change tomorrow but when you come to a week from now, a month from now, the middle of October, anything can happen for goodness sake,” he told Global News.
“I mean, it is a function of demand, not necessarily supply. That can be altered by shale oil production coming back on or OPEC kicking in more crude oil like they say they’re going to do in September, but it’s the demand side and that’s what’s driving this whole darn thing.”
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McKnight added that he’ll be watching how vaccine mandates play out across Canada.
“If the mandated vaccine programs come into effect that will increase demand because people will say, ‘OK, everything’s under control and I can get back to work now,’” he said.
“If variant number one, two or three shows up and people start hiding behind the curtains in the home again, that will decrease demand and lower prices, so it’s a coin toss either way. I don’t know how anybody can say what the price is going to be in September when you’ve got those two variables in the equation.”
To put the price changes into context, De Haan provided data for the two years before the pandemic.
In September 2018, average Canadian prices were at $1.30. By January, prices dropped to $1.02.
In 2019, fall prices averaged at $1.15 and dropped to $1.14 by January.
“Given that we’re now in a COVID era, there’s nothing really that we can compare where we are now to past history,” De Haan said.
“I think there will be relief, but I just think that relief could be enhanced or disrupted by the amount of COVID cases and the action in response to a change in cases from OPEC, Canadian oil producers, (and) from U.S. oil producers. So there’s more difficulty getting a prediction right but I think the overall trend should remain downward simply because prices are so elevated compared to where they were prior to COVID.”
Health Canada has authorized Novavax’s updated COVID-19 vaccine that protects against currently circulating variants of the virus.
The protein-based vaccine, called Nuvaxovid, has been reformulated to target the JN.1 subvariant of Omicron.
It will replace the previous version of the vaccine, which targeted the XBB.1.5 subvariant of Omicron.
Health Canada recently asked provinces and territories to get rid of their older COVID-19 vaccines to ensure the most current vaccine will be used during this fall’s respiratory virus season.
Earlier this week, Health Canada approved Moderna’s updated mRNA COVID vaccine.
It is still reviewing Pfizer’s updated mRNA vaccine, with a decision expected soon.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version erroneously described the Novavax vaccine as an mRNA shot.
HALIFAX – The federal Fisheries Department says an endangered North Atlantic right whale has become entangled in gear in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
The department says the whale was sighted Wednesday by a Transport Canada aerial surveillance team northeast of the Gaspé Peninsula, off Anticosti Island.
Officials say it’s not known what type of gear has entangled the whale or where the gear came from.
Based on observation, experts at the New England Aquarium have confirmed the whale is a female known as Chiminea.
The department says it is continuing to monitor the area and if the whale is located and conditions allow, efforts will be made to disentangle the animal.
Last October, the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium estimated there were 356 North Atlantic right whales left on the planet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Canadian pop icon Nelly Furtado has been named one of three headliners for the opening ceremony of the upcoming Invictus Games.
Furtado, from Victoria, will share the stage with alt-pop star Roxane Bruneau of Delson, Que., and American singer-songwriter Noah Kahan.
They’ll be part of the show that opens the multi-sport event in Vancouver and Whistler, B.C., in February.
The Invictus Games sees wounded, injured, and sick military service members and Veterans compete in 11 disciplines.
The Vancouver Whistler 2025 Games will be the first of seven editions to feature winter adaptive sports, including alpine skiing, Nordic skiing, skeleton and wheelchair curling.
British Columbia’s Lower Mainland will host the Invictus Games from Feb. 8-16.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
