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Fact check: is gun violence rising in Canada? – CBC.ca

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The topic of guns has dominated the last week of the federal election campaign. Liberals have attempted to drive a wedge between themselves and the Conservatives over a ban on “assault” style weapons, and Conservative leader Erin O’Toole backtracked on a plan to reverse that ban.

But all the parties seem to agree on one thing — gun violence is a pressing and growing issue.

“Our communities should be safe and peaceful places to live and raise children, but American-style gun violence is rising,” the Liberal platform reads.

“Too many lives have been lost in Canadian cities to rising gun crime,” the NDP platform concurs.

In a news conference Saturday, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole said violent shootings have increased since Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister.

Is gun violence rising in Canada and, if so, what do we know about it? CBC News looked into it with a fact check.

An upward trajectory

Criminal gun violence has risen in Canada — and by a fairly significant margin, according to Statistics Canada.

From 2009 to 2019 criminal use of firearms increased 81 per cent, the agency reported. 2019 saw a nine per cent increase over the previous year.

This includes not just discharging a firearm, but also pointing it — for example, as part of a bank robbery.

And the COVID-19 pandemic did not do much of anything to reverse the trend.

Last year, there were 8,344 victims of violent crimes which involved guns, according to a report from Greg Moreau of the Canadian Centre for Justice and Community Safety Statistics.

“This rate was unchanged compared to 2019 … Since reaching its lowest point in recent years in 2013, firearm-related violent crime has generally been increasing, with the exception of a decline between 2017 and 2018,” the report reads.

“The number of violent offences specific to firearms increased by 593 incidents in 2020, resulting in a 15 per cent rate increase.”

Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto who studies gun violence, says Canada has seen an uptick in homicides.

“There is somewhat of an increase, nationally speaking, especially over the last three or four years,” he said. 

But the rate of homicides with firearms has broadly held steady in recent years, according to StatsCan data.

Though the absolute number of homicides by firearm reached its highest level of the past five years in 2020 at 277, the proportion of homicides by firearm actually decreased. In 2020, 37.2 per cent of homicides involved a gun, compared with 40 per cent in 2017. 

Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at University of Toronto, says it’s a mistake to focus on homicide when thinking about gun violence as an issue. (CBC)

Lee said that while guns can be deadly, they’re often not.

“Homicide is really like the tip of the iceberg when it comes to violent crime,” he said. “That’s not taking into account non-fatal shootings, which are the overwhelming majority of shootings.”

Suicide, another aspect of gun violence that’s fatal, is much more common than homicide in Canada — but it has not shown a sustained increase over the past 20 years. After peaking in 2015 at 4,405 suicides, there were 3,540 in Canada in 2020, according to Statistics Canada.

Suicide has a well-documented positive relationship with gun ownership.

Public concerned about gun violence

As gun violence increases, the public is making its concern known.

According to public opinion research on firearms by Public Safety Canada, 47 per cent of Canadians feel that gun violence is a threat to their community.

An Ipsos poll in 2020 reported that an overwhelming majority (82 per cent) of those surveyed supported Bill C-21, the legislation aimed at banning a range of “assault-style” weapons.

A Leger and Association for Canadian Studies survey in 2021 reported that about two thirds (66 per cent) of respondents favoured stricter gun control in Canada. Only 10 per cent favoured looser regulations, while 19 per cent favoured the status quo.

Christian Pearce, a criminal defence lawyer based in Toronto who is also author of Enter the Babylon System, a book about gun culture, says that while gun violence is a serious issue, he thinks public concern about it is overblown.

“It has a dimension that invites fear,” he said. “Fear not only of gun crime itself but of the other — because of who the gun problem is stereotypically connected with.”

“I don’t think the problem that we have is of a magnitude that justifies a lot of the knee-jerk responses that we end up getting.”

What can be done?

Seizing on public consciousness of the issue, the parties have put forward policy proposals they say will reverse the trend.

The Liberals, for example, would introduce a buy back program for banned firearms and would set aside $1 billion for provinces and territories which ban handguns. The Conservatives have proposed hiring more police officers. The NDP have proposed funding for community anti-gang projects — and this sample is not close to exhaustive of the platforms on the issue.

But both Lee and Pearce say they’d like to see a more community-driven, proactive approach to address the roots of gun violence.

“People don’t really want to look at the larger problem that underlies gun crime, which is not really about guns but is about economics, classism, cumulative disadvantage,” Pearce said.

Lee concurs, and would like to see efforts to protect and deter the most vulnerable before tragedy strikes.

“We have to create a society that shields the most at risk from going down that path, and that takes a real bold vision. It takes thinking outside the box and not just constantly responding to the latest uptick in shootings,” he said.

“That’s the current model in a lot of cities, unfortunately.”

Good policy to address gun violence is being held back by a lack of good data, Lee says. Specifically, researchers don’t have a good enough idea of where illicitly-obtained firearms are coming from, which could inform efforts to curb the rise.

For now, Lee is skeptical that measures like more police and bans on certain types of guns will achieve much good.

“The notion of a ban makes everybody think, ‘OK, these guns won’t be here anymore, and they won’t be used in crime.’ But if the patterns now mirror those of the past, something like that probably won’t have that big of an impact.”

Fact check: true.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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