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Economy

UK economic growth slows sharply in July – BBC News

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The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in July as the last Covid restrictions were lifted in England.

It was the economy’s sixth consecutive month of growth, but the increase was much lower than in the previous month, which saw 1% growth.

Arts, entertainment and recreation activities helped the rise, but the “pingdemic” kept many workers at home.

The UK economy is still 2.1% below its pre-pandemic peak, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

GDP

The ONS said there had been a boost from outdoor events such as sports clubs, amusement parks and festivals following the easing of restrictions on social distancing on 19 July in England.

However, the main contributor to growth was a 1.2% rise in production output, boosted by the reopening of an oil field production site, which was previously temporarily closed for planned maintenance.

Jonathan Athow, deputy statistician of the ONS, said: “Oil and gas provided the strongest boost, having partially bounced back after summer maintenance. Car production also continued to recover from recent component shortages.”

Many firms suffered from a lack of staff during July as workers were forced to self-isolate at home after being alerted by the NHS Test and Trace app, giving rise to what was dubbed the “pingdemic”.

Services output was largely unchanged in July, but the construction sector contracted for a fourth consecutive month, with output down by 1.6%.

Construction has been affected by a shortage of building materials as prices have soared and supply has failed to match demand.

Overall, GDP grew by 3.6% in the three months to July, the ONS said.

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Analysis box by Faisal Islam, economics editor

July’s figures, showing the bounce-back in the economy stalling, make clear the recovery cannot be taken for granted. The cause, primarily, was the upsurge in cases across the UK, tempering the impact of the full reopening of the economy. But the impact of the supply chain crisis is also in these figures.

While August should have been better, these figures are consistent with the now slow decline in furlough numbers. Monthly data is always volatile, but the pattern seems to be that the UK saw a very rapid initial bounce-back from the mere act of economic reopening.

Recovery is going to be trickier as pandemic support is phased out and the impact of labour shortages and trade problems start to be seen in the figures. Talk of a “boom” was rather premature.

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Prof Jagjit Chadha, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, told the BBC’s Today programme that the increase for July was “lower than most people expected”.

But he added: “The economy is slowly getting back to its pre-pandemic level. There were always going to be potholes along the way.”

Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said the economic recovery had been “stopped in its tracks” by a surge in Covid cases in July.

He added that there were signs that the economy had regained momentum in August.

“Nonetheless, surveys continue to show that a large minority of households remain fearful of contracting Covid-19, even though they have been double-vaccinated.

“This suggests that the recovery in consumer-facing sectors might run out of steam again in the autumn if, as we expect, Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions remain on their current upward trend,” he said.

Kitty Ussher, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said it appeared that “England’s thrilling run” in the Euro 2020 tournament had boosted growth in June, leading to “a bit of fall-back” in July.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the figures showed the recovery was “well under way”. But Labour’s Bridget Phillipson, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said “Conservative complacency” was “holding our country back”.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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