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What is investment risk? – The Hindu

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Risk must be defined based on investment objective, not on the possibility of negative returns in future

How do you define investment risk? We ask this question because many individuals are worried that equity investments currently carry high risk, having recorded continual uptrend in recent times. In this article, we show that risk must be defined based on your investment objective, not on the possibility of negative returns experience in the future.

Goal failure

You invest to achieve a goal. This could range from buying a house within the next five years to investing for your retirement 25 years hence. Risk in this context is not about earning negative returns.

Rather, it the possibility that you may fail to buy the house because of adverse returns experience of your investment portfolio during the time horizon for the goal.

Note that adverse returns experience is not the same as negative returns experience. Suppose you save ₹53,000 every month for 10 years. Your objective, say, is to accumulate ₹1 crore to make down payment for a house.

Your investment must generate compounded annual return of 8.5% for you to achieve the goal.

The risk in relation to this goal is the possibility of your investments earning less than 8.5% in any year; for a small shortfall in one year can compound to large amount over the remaining time horizon for the goal.

The risk on your trading portfolio is measured differently. In this case, you are trading to generate gains from short-term fluctuations in the market. So, risk is the possibility of loss on your investments sometime in the future.

Your definition of risk is important for you to achieve your investment objectives. Why?

Suppose you create a stock-bond portfolio to meet your goals. Specifically, your bond investment will be in bank recurring deposits and your stock investments in equity funds. The actual return on your recurring deposit is the same as expected return, as the maturity value of the deposit is known at the time of investment.

Moderating risk

This means your investment risk can be attributed to your exposure to equity funds. There are couple of ways that you can moderate this risk.

One, you could continually reduce the proportion of your equity allocation and shift the money to fixed deposits starting four years from the end of the time horizon for the goal.

This change in allocation requires additional capital contribution in those years because expected returns on bonds is significantly lower than the expected return on equity. It is preferable to have equity allocation of not more than 30% of the portfolio at the end of the time horizon for a goal.

Two, suppose you expect to earn 10% on your equity investment every year.

In any year when your investment generates greater than 10%, you could redeem units equal to the excess returns and keep this money in a fixed deposit paying annual interest. This money can be used in years when your equity investment generates less than 10%.

Conclusion

You may be wondering why we did not discuss inflation in our discussion about investment risk. This is because your investments are set up to earn nominal returns, not inflation-adjusted return.

You should factor inflation as part of your goal, not as a risk associated with your investment portfolio. Suppose you want to buy a house 10 years hence. You should observe the current price of a similar property and inflation-adjust this price over 10 years.

If actual inflation is greater than assumed inflation, then the house that you want to buy in the tenth year may cost more than your estimated price.

True, you could fail to achieve your goal if this shortfall is significant. But this failure is not due to adverse returns experience of your investments; it is due to the unexpected increase in inflation.

(The author offers training programme for individuals to manage their personal investments)

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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