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Evergrande collapse could have a 'domino effect' on China's property sector, AllianceBernstein says – CNBC

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The Evergrande Group or Evergrande Real Estate Group logo of a Chinese real estate company is seen on a smartphone and a PC screen.
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China’s “highly distressed” real estate companies are at risk of collapse as the country’s highly indebted developer Evergrande is on the brink of default, warns AllianceBernstein’s Jenny Zeng.

Speaking with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Friday, the co-head of Asia fixed income at AllianceBernstein warned of a “domino effect” from a potential Evergrande collapse.

“In the offshore dollar market, there is a considerable large portion of developers (who) are implied to be highly distressed,” Zeng said. These developers “can’t survive much longer” if the refinancing channel remains shut for a prolonged period, she added.

Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, is crumbling under the weight of more than $300 billion of debt and warned more than once it could default. Banks have reportedly declined to extend new loans to buyers of uncompleted Evergrande residential projects, while ratings agencies have repeatedly downgraded the firm, citing its liquidity crunch.

The financial position of the other Chinese property developers also took a hit following rules outlined by the Chinese government to rein in borrowing costs of the real estate firms. The measures included placing a cap on debt in relation to a company’s cash flows, assets and capital levels.

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While the struggling developers are tiny individually, compared to Evergrande, they make up about 10%-15% of the total market on aggregate, Zeng said. She warned that a collapse could result in a “systemic” spillover to other parts of the economy.

“Once it starts, it takes much more from a policy perspective to stop it than to prevent it from happening,” she added.

On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence.
Simon MacAdam
Senior Global Economist, Capital Economics

Taken on its own, the financial or social risks associated directly with Evergrande itself are actually “reasonably manageable,” Zeng explained. She cited the fragmentation of the Chinese property market as a reason behind this.

“Despite Evergrande’s size – we all know it is the largest developer in China, probably the largest in the world – [it] still accounts for only 4% and now it’s even less of the total annual sales market,” Zeng said. “The debt, particularly the onshore debt, is well collateralized.”

China’s ‘Lehman moment’?

Some economists have warned that the collapse of Evergrande could become China’s “Lehman moment” – a reference to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered the 2008 global financial crisis.

However, Capital Economics’ Simon MacAdam described that narrative as “wide of the mark.”

“On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence,” MacAdam, a senior global economist at the firm, said in a Thursday note. “Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bust in China, we suspect it would take a policy misstep for this to cause a sharp slowdown in its economy.”

As of Friday’s close, the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have plunged more than 80% year-to-date.

— CNBC’s Weizhen Tan contributed to this report.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Montreal home sales, prices rise in August: real estate board

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MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.

The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.

The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.

The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.

QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.

Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

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