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Gold price rises as Fed delays tapering plans but pushes rate hike expectations to 2022 – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The gold market is struggling to find some direction with prices below $1,800 an ounce as the Federal Reserve holds back on releasing its plans to reduce its monthly bond purchase for at least another meeting.

“Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.

The delayed tapering plans come as the Federal Reserve also leaves interest rates unchanged at the zero-bound range, as expected. However, the U.S. central bank is still looking to tighten its monetary policies. According to the latest economic projections, it sees the first potential interest rate hike in 2022.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, described the new dot plot estimates as hawkish.

Despite the hawkish outlook, gold prices are seeing some renewed buying interest following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. December gold futures last traded at $1,779.30 an ounce.

The Federal Reserve’s outlook on current economic activity hasn’t changed since the summer, with the committed seeing continued strengthening.

Although the Federal Reserve has delayed its tapering plans this meeting, some analysts note that committee interest rate projections could be holding gold below $1,800 an ounce. Looking at the projections, also called the dot plots, the Committee sees interest rates rising to 0.3% in 2022, up from the previous estimate of 0.1%. This would signal that the central bank sees at least one rate hike next year.

For 2023 the median estimate for interest rates is 1%, up from the June forecast of 0.6%. For 2024 the central bank sees interest rates at 1.8%.

Despite the comments in the monetary policy statement, the central bank committee has downgraded its growth expectations for the rest of 2021. According to updated economic projections, the Federal Reserve sees the U.S. gross domestic product growing 5.9% this year, down from 7% forecasted in June. Economic growth next year has been revised higher to 3.8%, up from the previous projection of 3.3%. The economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2023, up one tick from June’s estimate of 2.4%. In the first look for 2024, the central bank sees GDP growing 2%.

The U.S. central bank is also paring back its optimism in the labor market. For 2021 the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.8%, compared to December’s forecast of 4.5%. For next year, the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.8%, unchanged from the previous forecast. In 2023 the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5%, also unchanged from June’s estimate. For 2024 the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.5%.
The U.S. central bank is also forecasting higher inflation pressure. The projections show that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is expected to rise 4.2% in 2021, up from June’s estimate of 3.4%. Inflation pressures are expected to continue to grow in 2022, with PCE increasing 2.2%, up from June’s estimate of 2.1%. In 2023, the Federal Reserve expects inflation to hold at 2.2%. By 2024 consumer prices pressure are expected to moderate, rising 2.1%.

Core inflation expectations, which strip out volatile food and energy prices, are expected to rise 3.7% this year, up compared to the previous estimate of 3.0%. Next year, core inflation is expected to rose 2.3%, compared to June’s forecast of 2.1%. In 2023, inflation is expected to rise to 2.2%, up from the previous estimate of 2.1%. Inflation is expected to moderate to 2.1% in 2024.

Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC, also described the latest monetary policy statement as slightly hawkish. He added that he expects the central bank will release its tapering plans at the November monetary policy meeting.

“While it’s clear that the members of the committee think they will start tapering before year-end, they didn’t want to commit to do so just in case the issues with the virus deepen,” he said in a note to clients. “we’ll stick with a view that the tapering announcement is made at the next meeting, and begins before year-end.”

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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