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Politics Briefing: September jobs boost lowers unemployment rate to 6.9 per cent as cabinet weighs extension of COVID-19 benefits – The Globe and Mail

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Hello,

Canadian employment has returned to prepandemic levels, Statistics Canada reported Friday, as a surprise gain of 157,000 jobs in September saw the unemployment rate fall from 7.1 per cent to 6.9 per cent.

The jobs boost beat market expectations and arrives as the federal Liberals deal with the looming Oct. 23 expiration date for key pandemic programs, including wage and rent subsidies for businesses and direct payments to individuals who are unable to work because of COVID-19.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said this week that she and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have had several recent discussions about whether or not to extend the programs. The Liberal Party campaigned on a pledge to offer targeted extensions focused on the hard hit tourism sector, but business and labour organizations say the need is still there and are urging the government to approve a more broad-based extension.

The Globe and Mail’s Matt Lundy reports on Friday’s job numbers here.

CIBC economist Royce Mendes said the recent election campaign helped create some of those part time jobs.

“The federal election also credibly helped boost hiring in public administration, with election enumerators and poll clerks needed. However, that’s only a temporary boost to employment, since those election-related jobs will have vanished by the time the October survey period rolls around,” he wrote in a note to clients.

RBC economist Nathan Janzen cautioned in a note that it is too early to declare a full recovery.

“Just because employment has now returned to prepandemic levels does not mean that labour markets have recovered. The unemployment rate is still more than a percentage point above February, 2020 levels,” he wrote.

BMO Chief Economist Doug Porter offered this take: “The recovery, while clearly bumpy at times, took a mere 17 months, which frankly was undoubtedly much faster than almost anyone would have dared predict in those dark days,” he wrote in research memo Friday titled “Canadian Jobs: She-Covery!”

“As a side note, female employment led the way last month with a huge 99,700 jump, and is now well above prepandemic levels,” Mr. Porter wrote.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. Today’s newsletter is co-written with Bill Curry. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met behind closed doors with his Liberal caucus on Thursday, in what was called an “informal” send-off for defeated MPs, leaving the postelection debrief on the party’s failed bid for a majority government to another day.

The NDP is prepared to withhold its votes in Parliament and wants the minority government to demonstrate it is interested in co-operation, Leader Jagmeet Singh said Thursday.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said high inflation could be “a little more persistent” than the central bank previously thought, while the economic recovery could “take a little longer.”

Quebec Premier François Legault says he will discontinue the current sitting of the legislature and deliver a fresh inaugural speech Oct. 19. The plan, announced Thursday, comes as the Coalition Avenir Québec government’s is facing an election scheduled for Oct. 3, 2022, Legault will use the speech to jump-start his government and set the tone for the postpandemic period. From The Montreal Gazette. Story here.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

Private meetings. And the Prime Minister speaks with New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs.

LEADERS

No public events for Friday have been announced by Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh or Bloc Québécois Leader Yves François Blanchette.

HOW TO BE A PRIME MINISTER

From Governing Canada, A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics by Michael Wernick (Published by On Point Press, an imprint of UBC Press)

This week, the Politics Briefing newsletter is featuring excerpts from Governing Canada, a new book by Michael Wernick, the former clerk of the privy council. Our focus is a key chapter, Advice to a Prime Minister. (Parliamentary reporter Kristy Kirkup reported on the project here.)

Today’s excerpt features some key points of, Mr. Wernick’s advice on dealing with the premiers:

“The most productive way to work with premiers over time is one-on-one and away from cameras. Phone calls and short meetings can get a lot sorted out. This work can lead to announcements and public events that you can both benefit from…

“The numbers and the incentives at a gathering of all the premiers are not in your favour. There are 13 of them, and the arithmetic is that it only takes a few of them to block progress, to water down initiatives, or to make your task more difficult. Generally, they will come to agreement only on the lowest common denominator. That usually means what they think you should be doing for them…

“So the predictable outcome of any gathering of premiers is going to be a call for you to increase federal transfers with as few strings attached as possible. They will assign their best people to put pressure on you in the buildup and even during the meeting. Premiers have gone back to this playbook for decades…

“The key point is that the arithmetic of the Canadian federation works against the federal prime minister. A handful of premiers is enough to delay or block. There will be ebbs and flows in the tone and climate of intergovernmental relations. So when the windows of alignment open up and progress looks possible, press hard and don’t waste them.”

OPINION

Tanya Talaga (The Globe and Mail) on why Justin Trudeau’s `regrets’ for his National Day for Truth and Reconciliation vacation is not enough: In an act of incredible forgiveness, the community of Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation will host Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on a visit to the gravesites of at least 200 Indigenous children. The Prime Minister’s Office has confirmed he’ll be there. This is the beautiful thing about so many Indigenous Peoples: No matter what crap is thrown at us – from genocidal laws and policies aimed to extinguish us, to racists yelling for us to get off the sidewalk – we rise. Our existence is our resistance. That isn’t just a slogan. It is the truth.”

Konrad Yakabuski (The Globe and Mail) says power has gone to Quebec Premier François Legault’s head: “Mr. Legault appears to have fallen into the trap of believing he owes his remarkable popularity to only himself, rather than to a series of factors for which he was only partly, or not at all, responsible… Once again, Mr. Legault demonstrated a dangerous tendency to get annoyed at the slightest criticism and dismiss anyone who disagrees with him as a troublemaker or, even worse, an enemy of the Quebec people.”

Andrew Coyne (The Globe and Mail) on the future of the Conservative Party and leader Erin O’Toole: “The proposition the Conservatives placed before the people in this election was less a move to the middle than a move to the muddle. There was no attempt to ground the proposals in any coherent set of principles, conservative or otherwise… The party itself has some deep thinking to do. For more than a hundred years, the Conservatives have been, as it is said, the spare wheel of Canadian politics, elected only after the public has grown sufficiently fed up with the Liberals. If they aspire to be something more, they need first to consider why they are something other: why they are not Liberals, assuming this is explained by fundamental differences over policy and not the other way around.”

Send along your political questions and we will look at getting answers to run in this newsletter. It’s not possible to answer each one personally. Questions and answers will be edited for length and clarity.

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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