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'This is a game-changer for gold': Shift in Fed's rate hike expectations take gold price towards $1800 – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) The new U.S. inflation data release has triggered a rollercoaster ride in gold, with the latest move taking the precious metal nearly $40 higher on the day.

September’s inflation numbers showed price pressures accelerating to 5.4% annually, slightly more than the market was expecting.

“We are starting to see the market growing nervous about the U.S. consumer. After digesting this report, it shows that the market is now anticipating sooner rate hikes. At the same time, we see the yield curve flattening, and that is good news for gold,” OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. “Gold is entering a period where risks now outweigh the reopening trade, and we’ll see more safe-haven flows into gold. This is a major reversal of trends and very positive for gold.”

More persistent inflation could mean a more aggressive Federal Reserve when it comes to tightening. “Potentially, gold will no longer see significant weakness whenever we get more inflationary pressures because now inflationary pressures will mean growth concerns,” Moya said.

And an environment of higher inflation and lower growth is known as stagflation, which is when gold is known to thrive, said Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible.

“The IMF is continuing to downgrade global growth and rising inflation, and that is the stagflation environment that gold thrives so well on,” he said. “The inflation data reaffirms the Fed’s position on tapering this November.”

Moya pointed out that a more persistent inflation pressure guarantees that the Fed will begin its tapering in November, and it could be more aggressive than what Fed Chair Jerome Powell had described a month ago.

“Initially, Powell highlighted that tapering will be completed by the middle of next year. Now, expectations are that it will be done sooner, before we get to hot summer months,” he said.

This reset in Fed rate hike expectations “is a game-changer” for gold, Moya highlighted. And if growth concerns continue to rise, gold has a chance to re-test those all-time highs of above $2,000 an ounce seen over a year ago.

Moya is bullish on gold after December futures surged 2% higher on Wednesday. At the time of writing, December futures were trading at $1,796, up nearly $37 on the day.

“Gold right now is facing massive resistance at $1,800; we’ll test this level a handful of times. But I am still looking for further momentum. We’ll see prices continue to move towards $1,840, which is where prices will consolidate more,” he said.

Streible noted that he first needs to see what gold does at $1,800 an ounce, stating that he is using this time to lighten some of his overweight positions.

“Even if gold broke through that 50-day moving average, now it has $1,800 as psychological resistance, then there’s $1,825-35 and then $1,850,” he said. “Tapering could mark a bottom in gold.”

The markets are closely watching the release of the Fed’s minutes from its September meeting this afternoon. And this massive reset in Fed rate hike expectations following the inflation report could be what gold needs, Moya said.

“There’s now over 90% chance that the Fed will raise rates by September 2022. There’s uncertainty with the global energy crisis and the potential that Biden will make an announcement on China. Investors are scrambling for safe-haven positions,” he told Kitco News.

Investors are looking for signs from the Fed that it is leaning towards the idea that inflation is more persistent than transitory, which will continue to drive rate expectations hikes, Moya added.

“Fed has done everything it can on the employment front. Even if we start to see sluggish job growth, with infrastructure spending, you’ll see stable hiring in the first half of the year. This could allow gold prices to rally because the market will become more fixated on the inflation side of things,” he explained.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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