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The global energy crisis has 4 possible paths through 2022: BofA – Markets Insider

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Oil pumps at sunset, industrial oil pumps equipment.
  • The worldwide energy crisis unfolding has thrown markets into unprecedented turmoil.
  • In Europe, natural gas prices are at record highs. And in China, thermal coal futures are also at all-time highs.
  • Francisco Blanch of Bank of America provided Insider with four possible paths through early 2022.
  • Sign up here for our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.

The worldwide energy crisis unfolding amid a surge in demand and an ongoing supply crunch has thrown the oil and gas markets into unprecedented turmoil.

Oil prices are up more than 60% this year, with West Texas Intermediate crude hitting a fresh seven-year high on Friday.

Elsewhere, the situation is even more extreme. In Europe, natural gas prices are at record highs, with wholesale prices on spot markets tripling this year. In China, thermal coal futures are also at all-time highs and have tripled this year as well.

As energy prices continue to rocket, Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Global Commodities and Derivatives Research Head, provided Insider with four possible paths he sees through early 2022. Each one holds the promise of prices cooling off, but some scenarios are more painful than others.

1. A spike in energy prices will lead to an economic crash

Francisco likened the energy crunch today to the run-up in oil prices between 2007 to 2008.

At the start of 2007, Brent crude was at just $50 a barrel, then nearly doubled to $95.98 a barrel towards the end of the year. And by July 2008, prices soared to an all-time high of nearly $150 a barrel. But prices crashed spectacularly as the Great Recession took hold.

If a similar spike in oil happens again, Francisco said major industrial firms may just sharply decrease production activities or shut down altogether, which will ultimately lead to a recession.

In fact, surging energy prices have already forced some businesses, especially in Europe and Asia, to halt manufacturing.

2. More production, substitution

An increase in the prices of any good will prompt any producer to either ramp up their production or to find more affordable alternatives, Francisco said.

So far, US shale companies have indicated they plan to invest more money next year in domestic production. But they don’t appear ready to unleash a flood of oil as investment remains constrained in favor of bigger shareholder returns.

Meanwhile, as natural gas and coal prices soar, some companies are shifting to using oil. That may add around 500,000 barrels a day to global demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

3. A warm winter that will temporarily cure the problem

Global energy prices are rising ahead of winter, when demand spikes for natural gas and coal to heat homes. Buyers across the globe are competing over a limited supply while energy prices remain high. The US Energy Information Administration on October 13 warned Americans to brace themselves for a heftier heating bill.

But what if we suddenly experience a warmer-than-expected winter? Demand will naturally slide, and the problem, according to Francisco said, would have momentarily cured itself “by chance.”

4. A hike in interest rates that will slow down aggregate demand

Then there’s the possibility that the central bank will slow down aggregate demand, Francisco said. This means allowing for somewhat higher interest rates and reduced quantitative easing, which will cool overall growth and energy consumption.

Federal Reserve officials have already signaled they will taper bond purchases later this year and start hiking rates next year, as the economy continues to rebound and inflation stays elevated.

“Remember, you can print US dollars, you can print euros, and you can print Philippine pesos. But you can’t print commodities,” he said.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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