Pedestrians walk along Yonge Street, in downtown Toronto, on Nov. 19, 2020.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
Canada’s streak of job growth continued in October, though it slowed from a torrid pace.
The country added 31,000 jobs last month, following a gain of 157,000 positions in September, Statistics Canada said Friday. The unemployment rate declined to 6.7 per cent from 6.9 per cent. It was the fifth consecutive month of job growth since the summer reopening.
As of October, around 19.16 million Canadians were employed – or nearly 32,000 more than in February, 2020, when the pandemic upended the economy.
Despite the threat of the Delta variant of COVID-19, hiring has continued to chug along in early fall. The October gain was entirely driven by the private sector, which saw an increase of 70,000 jobs. And the standout industry was retail, adding 72,000 positions for the month.
After wild bouts of layoffs and hiring in much of the past two years, Friday’s labour report resembled a “normal” one, said Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter in a report to investors, pointing out that monthly job creation in 2019 averaged just under 30,000.
“Over all, a bit of a ho-hum report, which will make little impact on the timing of any rate moves by the Bank of Canada – but given the wildness of the prior 18 months, no one is complaining about ho-hum,” Mr. Porter said.
The question is whether that normality persists. Federal financial supports for employers and individuals – such as the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy and Canada Recovery Benefit – expired on Oct. 23, which could have a ripple effect on hiring and labour participation.
At the same time, job openings are continuing to grow, and employers remain vocal about their struggles to fill vacancies. There has also been further easing of health restrictions, such as the removal of capacity limits on indoor dining in Ontario in late October.
“With COVID cases on the decline, and some provinces continuing to ease restrictions … employment should continue to advance, driven by industries with strong labour demand,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam in a note to clients.
The labour market hit some milestones last month. Full-time employment for men in the core working ages of 25 to 54 returned to its prepandemic level. For women in that cohort, full-time work has increased by nearly 100,000 positions since the pandemic started.
While the labour participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 65.3 per cent in October, it has fully recovered and was at record or near-record highs for most age groups, Statscan noted.
Still, there are segments of the labour market that are struggling greatly. In particular, self-employment continued a lengthy slide, falling another 38,000 positions in October. Statscan noted that self-employment now stands at the lowest level seen since March of 2007.
Despite having a large number of vacancies, the hospitality industry lost workers for a second consecutive month, dropping by some 27,000 people in October. Restaurants and hotels have been some of the most vocal businesses about their hiring challenges. Hospitality jobs are down 17 per cent (207,000) since COVID-19 started.
While employment has returned to prepandemic levels, Canada is still short of a full recovery. The employment rate of 61 per cent is down 0.8 percentage points over the pandemic, reflecting growth of the adult population. To close the employment-rate gap, another 265,000 jobs are needed for a full recovery, based on today’s population.
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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
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