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Why Oil Prices Fell After The OPEC Meeting – OilPrice.com

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Why Oil Prices Fell After The OPEC+ Meeting | OilPrice.com


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After around forty years of making a living from financial markets in one way or another, I am not often left scratching my head these days. I may not agree with every move, but I can usually see the logic behind them. This week’s big drop in oil prices, on the other hand, mystifies me. I can, I suppose, see that it was a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” kind of thing, but the timing of the move and its complete disregard of news that positively impacts fundamental factors was a bit puzzling.

After two months that saw crude jump around twenty percent, a pullback was coming at some point, almost no matter what. That is why I wrote here three weeks ago that I was beginning to trim some positions in oil stocks, not because I expected a collapse or anything, but just because it was time to take some profit, knowing that I could buy back in if oil did pull back for technical rather than fundamental reasons.

When that pullback started as the OPEC+ meeting approached, I began to get a bit nervous. Did the market know something I didn’t? Had there been massive behind the scenes pressure from Biden and European leaders who were suffering politically because of rising energy costs? Were we about to see another easing of output restrictions?

The answers were no, no, and no but that didn’t seem to matter.

One gets the feeling that, far from feeling pressure as a result of the discomfort of Biden, Johnson et al, the primary drivers…

After around forty years of making a living from financial markets in one way or another, I am not often left scratching my head these days. I may not agree with every move, but I can usually see the logic behind them. This week’s big drop in oil prices, on the other hand, mystifies me. I can, I suppose, see that it was a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” kind of thing, but the timing of the move and its complete disregard of news that positively impacts fundamental factors was a bit puzzling.

WTI

After two months that saw crude jump around twenty percent, a pullback was coming at some point, almost no matter what. That is why I wrote here three weeks ago that I was beginning to trim some positions in oil stocks, not because I expected a collapse or anything, but just because it was time to take some profit, knowing that I could buy back in if oil did pull back for technical rather than fundamental reasons.

When that pullback started as the OPEC+ meeting approached, I began to get a bit nervous. Did the market know something I didn’t? Had there been massive behind the scenes pressure from Biden and European leaders who were suffering politically because of rising energy costs? Were we about to see another easing of output restrictions?

The answers were no, no, and no but that didn’t seem to matter.

One gets the feeling that, far from feeling pressure as a result of the discomfort of Biden, Johnson et al, the primary drivers of OPEC+ decisions, the Saudis and Russians, are enjoying it. They have major powers by the balls and the louder the leaders of those countries squeal, the harder they squeeze. The press release that followed the virtual meeting was couched in language about providing “…stability to oil markets…” but the decision itself read more as a “screw you” than anything.

That really shouldn’t come as a surprise, although I admit I thought that there may be some backdoor dealing that resulted in an offer that OPEC+ couldn’t refuse. Putin and Mohamed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, had much better relationships with Donald Trump than they have with Joe Biden, so anything they can do to put pressure on the current administration is in their long-term interests. There is a danger that as the world moves away from fossil fuels, OPEC+ countries will leave themselves with stranded assets if they don’t take advantage of increased demand and high prices. However, long-term geopolitical concerns seem to be outweighing that right now.

Given that, the real surprise came not in the decision itself, but in the market’s reaction to it.

Oil

After the announcement, crude dropped around five bucks.

As I said, that is a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” kind of thing given the run up in the morning that preceded the end of the meeting but, in the context of a market where supply remains restricted and demand is increasing, it makes little sense. Over the next couple of months, those basic facts of supply and demand look like remaining in place so, even though the OPEC+ announcement resulted in a drop in crude, I remain bullish, if a little more confused than I was before, at least until the end of the year.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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