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Economy

Asia shares edge higher as China data beat forecasts

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Asian shares edged higher on Monday as Chinese economic data surprised on the high side, challenging wagers the economy was stuck in a downturn although a decline in mainland house prices was a worry.

Annual growth in retail sales and industrial output both handily beat forecasts, with the bounce in consumption a positive given pandemic restrictions.

On a negative note for the stressed housing market new home prices in China fell 0.2% month-on-month in October, the biggest decline since February 2015.

Economists at CBA argued there was a chance the People’s Bank of China would cut bank reserve requirements (RRR) this week to support activity.

“We estimate a 50 basis point cut to the RRR can release CNY 1 billion of liquidity,” they said in a note “In our view, mild easing measures can help meet funding requirements for property developers and offset downside risks to the economy.”

Chinese blue chips were steady on the data, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, after popping higher late last week.

Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5% as data showing economic activity shrank by more than expected in the third quarter only reinforced the case for aggressive fiscal stimulus.

Elsewhere, the U.N. climate conference in Scotland managed to hammer out a deal on emissions, but only by watering down a commitment to phase out coal.

Wall Street eased last week to break a string of gains, though the major indices were only a shade off all-time highs. S&P 500 futures firmed 0.1% in early trade on Monday, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2%.

A key release this week will be U.S. retail sales on Tuesday for any impact from the drop in consumer sentiment to a decade low reported for November as people fretted over higher prices, particularly for petrol.

There are also doubts about whether firms have the pricing power to maintain margins in the face of rising costs.

Analysts at BofA noted 75% of U.S. companies had beaten earnings estimates in the latest reporting season but forecasts for the fourth quarter were only flat, breaking more than a year of rising expectations.

The grim survey helped Treasuries steady a little, but yields were still up a hefty 11 basis points for the week as the market priced in a greater risk of an early tightening by the Federal Reserve.

BofA economist Ethan Harris suspects the market still has not priced in enough given the high starting level of inflation means rates need to rise more to reach neutral.

“If inflation stays high and comes in above the planned overshoot, the Fed will need to become much more hawkish and either accept a market correction or deliberately induce such a correction,” warns Harris.

Higher U.S. yields have combined with general risk aversion to benefit the dollar, which boasted its best week in almost three months. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was firm at 95.017 and just off its highest since July 2020.

It was holding at 113.85 yen, preparing for another challenge of the October top at 114.69.

The euro looked vulnerable at $1.1455, having broken decisively lower last week.

“Covid infection curves moving in the wrong direction are part of the reason, while renewed restrictions are being imposed in Austria and the Netherlands,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

“The implications or both growth and ECB policy are not being lost on currency markets.”

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will appear before European Parliament later on Monday.

Inflation concerns kept gold in demand at $1,860 an ounce, after notching its biggest weekly gain since May.[GOL/]

Oil prices had a tougher week, hit by a strengthening dollar and speculation that President Joe Biden’s administration might release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.[O/R]

Brent reversed early gains on Monday to lose another 52 cents to $81.65 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 48 cents to $80.31.

 

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)

Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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