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Economy

Varcoe: Gondek takes reins as Calgary's economy recalibrates and recovers – Calgary Herald

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If timing is everything, Calgary’s new mayor has picked an opportune moment to assume leadership of a city that’s used to economic booms and busts — and is now busy recalibrating and recovering.

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Mayor Jyoti Gondek addressed more than 200 members of the local business community on Friday, delivering an upbeat, in-person message to a Calgary Chamber of Commerce luncheon.

She touted the city’s economic rebound and discussed council’s decision this week to declare a climate emergency as Calgary strives to position itself as a global hub for energy transformation research and development.

Her speech landed as the economy has turned a corner, thanks to rising commodity prices, the fourth wave of COVID-19 receding, and a recent string of promising corporate investments.

“I believe there is tremendous excitement around Calgary,” Gondek told reporters after the speech.

“I’ve seen clear signals from different groups and different places about their belief that Calgary will go into recovery very soon. The economic indicators are there.”

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Indeed, they are.

Earlier this month, Amazon Web Services announced it will create a major cloud-computing hub in Calgary, planning to invest more than $4 billion in the region and create more than 900 positions across the country.

On Tuesday, a new Calgary-based discount airline was unveiled. Lynx Air said it will hire up to 450 workers over the next 12 months as it begins passenger service in early 2022.

It follows international tech giants Mphasis and Infosys , along with Royal Bank of Canada, unveiling plans to bring up to 1,800 jobs (combined) to the city in the coming years.

There are some bright spots in Calgary’s economy.
There are some bright spots in Calgary’s economy. Photo by Gavin Young/Postmedia

The recovery is broader than technology, however.

A report released Thursday by the Conference Board of Canada projects Alberta will lead the country in economic growth next year, citing a rebound in energy prices.

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And Statistics Canada data released Friday shows retail sales in the province increased by 1.7 per cent in September from the prior month, powered by higher motor vehicle sales, while they shrank in the entire country.

Inflation remains high and supply chain disruptions tied to flooding in British Columbia this week are being closely watched. But the broader economic outlook entering 2022 is encouraging.

“Calgary’s economy is starting to rebound,” said chamber president Deborah Yedlin.

“It’s not going to happen overnight, but we are certainly in a better position today than we have been for quite a while.”

The chamber gathering took place as the city and province are seeing a bounce back after a historic recession last year.

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The province’s GDP contracted by eight per cent in 2020 after oil prices plunged to new lows and the COVID-19 crisis saw thousands of businesses shut down and jobs disappear.

The conference board projects Alberta’s economy will grow by 5.7 per cent this year and expand by 6.1 per cent in ‘22 — well above the national average — “largely because prices for energy products and other key commodities have recovered strongly.”

In 2023, Alberta’s economic growth will slow, yet still increase by 2.9 per cent.

“We see Alberta rebounding faster, in part because it had dropped the most in the country through 2020,” Ted Mallett, the board’s director of economic forecasting, said Friday.

“I wouldn’t call it buoyant; we are talking about a recovery here.”

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However, the report notes energy investments are returning to the province and drilling has picked up as oil prices have rallied. The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors says 179 rigs were active during the week of Nov. 8, up 74 per cent from the same period last year.

More investment is also flowing into renewable power projects and other clean energy developments.

Most Canadian petroleum producers are now assembling their capital budgets for 2022, although a few have been released showing modest spending hikes.

Energy Minister Sonya Savage said the province is seeing some increased investment in the oilpatch, although many companies are reticent to make larger spending commitments given the broader investment climate.

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“The industry is reluctant to invest in new operations when there’s a global divestment movement underway,” Savage said.

Many Canadian oil and gas companies are still recovering from the financial damage sustained in 2020.

“Traditionally at this point in the cycle, you do see a substantial upswing in capital investment. We’ve seen a far more measured approach,” said Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers president Tim McMillan, who attended Friday’s luncheon.

“But I do expect to see more drilling.”

  1. Newly sworn in Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson speaks during a press conference in Ottawa, Canada on October 26, 2021.

    Varcoe: Oilpatch and new resources minister promise to ‘put elbows down’ after meeting face to face

  2. Merren McArthur, CEO of new airline Lynx Air, was photographed with flight attendants at the airline's launch at the Calgary International Airport on Tuesday, November 16, 2021.

    Varcoe: Alberta airline veteran helps give wings to new discount Calgary carrier, Lynx Air

  3. Brad Parry, Calgary Economic Development interim president and CEO, poses for a photo at Telus Convention Centre in Calgary on Wednesday, October 27, 2021.

    Varcoe: For Calgary to recover, ‘we have to transform our economy’

For the 72,000 Calgarians who were unemployed last month, the most pressing issue is when will more jobs come back?

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In October, the region saw employment climb by nearly 17,000 and the jobless rate fell to eight per cent, but it’s still among the highest of Canada’s largest cities.

“Calgary is now, in terms of employment, above where we were pre-COVID,” said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist of Alberta Central.

“We can be comfortable saying the recovery is almost completed and we will finally start the expansion, where our economy will start to get bigger — and that’s after five, six years of recovery.”

At the chamber event, Gondek talked about the importance of revitalizing the downtown and dealing with the high vacancy rate for office buildings. The mayor also spoke about council’s decision to declare a climate emergency, positioning it as an opportunity to attract investment.

“Does this make us anti-oil and gas? Absolutely not. Our energy sector is already well down this path,” she told the audience, pointing to six major oilsands producers working together to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We must be leaders here, establishing our city as a centre of excellence in the energy transition economy.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

cvarcoe@postmedia.com

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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