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What the Bank of Canada’s renewed mandate means for inflation, housing – Global News

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The wording of the Bank of Canada’s new mandate has changed but the substance of it remains essentially the same, several economists say.

Canadians can expect the country’s central bank to continue to aim for low, stable and predictable inflation. And when it comes to the impact of low interest rates on the housing market, it will be up to the government — not monetary policy — to get a handle on runaway home prices.

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Bank of Canada to maintain current inflation mandate

In a joint press conference on Monday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced the details of the new five-year mandate, the compass that will guide the central bank’s monetary policy decisions until the end of 2026. While the Bank of Canada makes monetary policy decisions independently, every five years the federal government gets a say in the overall framework under which the bank operates.

According to the new mandate, the “primary objective” of the Bank of Canada will continue to be to pursue an inflation target of two per cent, as it has done since 1991.

The new framework also instructs the central bank to put new emphasis on the labour market when weighing how its policy options. But the new twist won’t change much in practice, according to economists interviewed by Global News.

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Canadians are about to face more sticker shock at the grocery store

That’s because the new mandate stops short of making full employment a second target for the Bank of Canada as it is for U.S. Federal Reserve. Economists define full employment as an ideal labour market in which everyone who wants to work can find a job.

“This is really a repackaging of the existing mandate for the Bank of Canada in a new candy wrapper,” says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC.

The Bank of Canada’s approach to the housing market, where prices are affected by the cost of borrowing, will also remain the same, according to the documents backing the decision.


Click to play video: 'No short-term solutions to rising cost of living: former Bank of Canada governor'



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No short-term solutions to rising cost of living: former Bank of Canada governor


No short-term solutions to rising cost of living: former Bank of Canada governor

Canada already aiming for full employment, economist says

Aiming for full employment was already “inherent” to the central bank’s approach to policymaking, Shenfeld adds.

And the new mandate stops short of defining what full employment is, says Chris Ragan, director of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill’s University.

Ragan, along with other economists commenting on the new mandate on Twitter, expressed relief over the decision not to formally add full employment as a second target for the central bank.

“People like me who think the central bank shouldn’t have a dual mandate argue that the central bank already cares about things like employment and unemployment and the output gap and real GDP growth,” he says.

“But the only thing (the Bank of Canada) can really influence in a sustained way is inflation,” he adds. “So set the target up as inflation.”

Read more:

Politics not to blame for inflation, former Bank of Canada governor says

To manage inflation, the Bank of Canada adjusts its trend-setting interest rate, which affects the general level of interest rates in the economy. When interest rates go up, it becomes more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow, which usually cools off economic activity and slows down inflation. Lowering interest rates, on the other hand, tends to stimulate economic activity and put upward pressure on inflation.

The central bank may, in certain instances, have to hold its key interest rate “at a low level for longer than usual,” according to the documents.

But the way the Bank of Canada was targeting inflation — at two per cent within a range of one and three per cent — was already explicitly flexible, Shenfeld notes.

“They weren’t trying to steer inflation every minute of the day to two per cent, but rather get the economy to a fully employed position where we could have, on average, two per cent inflation,” he adds.

The mandate renewal documents also mention the Bank of Canada “systematically” reporting to Canadians about how labour market impacts factor into its monetary policy decisions.

That likely means the Bank of Canada governor will have to spend more time talking about how variables like employment, unemployment and vacancy rates influenced its thinking when making their appearance on Parliament Hill, Ragan says.

“I think that’s actually a good thing,” he says. “The more the bank can communicate … the underlying logic of its policy actions to the Canadian people (the better).”  


Click to play video: 'Canada’s inflation rate soars to 4.7% in October'



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Canada’s inflation rate soars to 4.7% in October


Canada’s inflation rate soars to 4.7% in October – Nov 20, 2021

What about the housing market?

If the brainstorming behind the new mandate led to a new emphasis on the job market, it did not include new thinking on the housing market.

Canada has seen a record spike in home price appreciation during the pandemic, with the national average home prices up 18 per cent in October compared with the same month in 2020, according to data from the Canada Real Estate Association (CREA).

Persistently low interest rates contribute to a hot housing market by making it cheap to carry a mortgage, which also drives up household debt levels.

“A prolonged period of low interest rates could contribute to a buildup of financial vulnerabilities,” reads the 74-page report that backs the Bank of Canada’s new mandate.

Read more:

Canada’s housing market hotter than ever — and investors are playing a big role

The value of Canada’s household debt now exceeds that of the country’s GDP, and its relative size has doubled since 1990, according to the document.

Still, government policies are “better suited” than monetary policy to addressing those vulnerabilities, the document reads.

“There are some problems created by (having) very low interest rates for long and rising house prices is one of them,” Ragan says. “But there are also benefits created from those low interest rates, which is to support that demand.”

“We haven’t figured out how to solve rising house prices,” he adds, “but I would be the first to argue that it’s not really monetary policy problem to do that.”

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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