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Bank of Canada's inflation mandate renewed: Economists react – BNN

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced on Monday that it will renew the Bank of Canada’s 2 per cent inflation target, while adding language that will give the central bank more flexibility to overshoot the target in order to achieve employment objectives. 

Here are some reactions from economists and analysts:

  • Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, by email: “The very heavy emphasis on employment was notable, as was the sense that low-for-long will sometimes be needed to meet goals. Overall, it struck us as a tad more dovish than generally expected.”
  • Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Securities Inc., by email: “It adds a bit of a concreteness to the idea of leaning on favoring max employment, especially the option to adjust the 1-3 per cent range as warranted. But I’m expecting these adjustments to be fairly rare and perhaps more likely in a context where we’re recovering from a real recession.”
  • Jean-Francois Perrault, chief economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, by email: “I do think an explicit call out to maximum sustainable employment goes beyond the informal approach of the past in part because it will be very difficult to conclude that we are at that maximum level at any given point in time. It also risks making things awkward between the Bank of Canada and the government.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“Over the short term, the renewal points to a patient approach to tightening, much like the framework change the Federal Reserve made in 2020. However, patience is not unlimited, and it would be a mistake to think recent inflation rates near 5 per cent represent what the BoC will tolerate in search of better job-market outcomes”
— Andrew Husby, economist

  • Sri Thanabalasingam, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, by email: “I thought it was mostly a continuation of the current framework from a Bank of Canada perspective. The consideration of labor market indicators and the use of the inflation target range are things the bank was already incorporating in its policy making. Today, we saw a confirmation of that in writing. That said, by explicitly having labor market considerations in the mandate, it may result in more accommodative monetary policy in the future.”
  • Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, by email: “It’s clear that the inflation target takes priority over other considerations, and that while the mandate has some flexibility, that is only within the constraints of keeping inflation expectations grounded at 2 per cent. The new language will not have any material impact on decisions in 2022, since the economy has actually made better progress on employment than it has on GDP, and has already had an extended ‘low for long’ period in monetary policy to ensure that it is truly lifting off before the first hikes come.”
  • Simon Deeley, director of Canada rates strategy at RBC Dominion Securities Inc., in a report to investors: “While we agree that the BoC has had — and used — the flexibility in its framework in the past, the changes are nevertheless important. The lower-for-longer component hints at average inflation targeting and the specific employment considerations in certain situations incorporates elements of a dual mandate. Indeed, the BoC notes in the full renewal piece that it is adding the positive elements of both policies, while avoiding the negative aspects by emphasizing the inflation target — and anchored inflation expectations — as the over-arching objective.”
  • Josh Nye, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada, by email: “It seems pretty much as expected an in line with your reporting from last week. The decision to maintain a 2 per cent midpoint inflation target within the 1-3 per cent control band is status quo, and the language around maximum sustainable employment (as what I would call a secondary objective) is largely as expected.”
  • Stephen Gordon, economics professor at Universite Laval, by Twitter: “Gotta admit I don’t like the fact that that we all think the BoC mandate is something that requires interpreting.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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