(Bloomberg) — Australia’s most populous state could be playing “Russian Roulette” with its economic recovery by pressing ahead with a roll back of virus restrictions in the face of surging infections, according to AMP Capital Investors Ltd.’s Shane Oliver.
New South Wales’ decision to relax mask and vaccine mandates, check-in requirements and density limits at a time “when other countries are going in the opposite direction has added to the coronavirus risks to the near-term economic outlook,” Oliver, chief economist at AMP, said in a research note.
Maintaining the rules for longer would have imposed little cost on Australia’s largest state economy and may have helped slow case numbers, he said. “But their removal adds to the risk of a spike in cases and hospitalizations that is so large that it necessitates a return to hard lockdowns.”
The debate about maintaining some restrictions comes as Australia shows signs of rapid recovery from a protracted lockdown that caused the economy to contract last quarter. Mobility and activity data had been surging in the lead up to the holiday period as pent-up demand is released.
Cases in New South Wales have now spiked through 2,500 a day, compared with around 200-300 early in the month as the highly-contagious omicron variant spreads. Yet Premier Dominic Perrottet is sticking to his position, saying he’s focused on hospitalizations — which remain relatively low — with more than 93% of the state’s adult population now vaccinated.
The public is showing signs of taking matters into its own hands. Four out of five Australians have either canceled or remain undecided about their summer holiday travel plans, while one in two have no confidence in traveling interstate, a survey commissioned by the Tourism & Transport Forum showed.
New South Wales accounts for around a third of the nation’s economic output and is home to almost a third of Australians.
“The further relaxation of restrictions has unnecessarily and significantly added to the risk of another setback in the economy,” said Oliver. “Hopefully the relaxation in NSW will quickly be reversed in the interest of public health and the economy.”
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.
The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.
The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.
Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.
Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.
Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
