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Canada will miss COVID-19 cases as testing systems become overwhelmed: experts – Globalnews.ca

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Daniel Bear would like to get a COVID-19 test.

“I know I have COVID,” the father from Toronto told Global News on Tuesday.

He’s taken five rapid tests since his nose started running nearly a week ago. At first, they were negative, he said. But on Sunday when his symptoms got worse, he took another, and it was positive. He’s had two more positive tests since.

Read more:

Ontario health units dealing with high COVID testing demand due to Omicron

Bear said he’d like to get a PCR test from a government testing centre because his daughter’s school won’t notify families who may have been exposed without a positive PCR test result.

“I don’t need a PCR test for vanity’s sake, I need a PCR test so that the school can notify other families that I was there for pick-up,” he said.

But, he wasn’t able to find an appointment until this upcoming Thursday, and he fears that might be too late to produce an accurate result. After hearing of his plight, he said, a private company sent him an at-home kit that he plans to take right away, though not everyone has that option.


Click to play video: 'COVID-19: Nova Scotia announces changes to testing strategy'



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COVID-19: Nova Scotia announces changes to testing strategy


COVID-19: Nova Scotia announces changes to testing strategy

Bear isn’t the only one having trouble finding a PCR test in Ontario, or elsewhere. And some experts warn that tests will have to be prioritized for high-risk groups as testing systems become overwhelmed – which will likely lead to inaccurate case counts.

“I think we’re in crisis,” said Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa.

“People cannot get PCR tests. The rapid tests are hard to find as well. So we’re at the stage where we’re probably rationing PCR tests to a large extent, by which I mean reserving them for health-care workers or people who need them for clinical diagnostic purposes.”

Testing demand

Ottawa Public Health has already warned residents that testing cannot keep up with demand, and people with symptoms or exposure to COVID-19 should self-isolate even if they can’t get tested.

Quebec’s health minister warned Monday that testing capacity is stretched thin in that province too – and asked that only people with symptoms seek a test. Labs have recently been processing around 40,000 tests a day, hitting a high of 46,830 on Dec. 15.

“It’s a record since the beginning of the pandemic, and it’s, unfortunately, our maximum capacity,” Quebec Health Minister Christian Dube said. “Testing centres should not be a tool to get tested if you’re asymptomatic and you want to gather with your loved ones.”

Dube asked people to prioritize at-home rapid tests to avoid clogging laboratories.

Ontario’s chief public health officer Dr. Kieran Moore said Tuesday the province would soon announce further guidance on prioritizing PCR tests and using rapid antigen tests.

Data problems

When not everyone who wants a COVID-19 test can get one, it can wreak havoc on data and record-keeping, said Fahad Razak, a general internist at St. Michael’s Hospital, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto, and a member of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table.

“We will probably in the next few days lose sight of where the infections are happening in the province,” he said. “What areas are the most concentrated things like high-risk exposures? So were you in a place where you exposed a lot of other people? All of these things become more difficult to do when you don’t have a reliable testing mechanism.”

He says daily case counts could soon be a “considerable underestimation” of the number of people infected, he said.

Deonandan agrees.

“Very soon we’re going to see a plateauing of cases and a reduction or stabilization of the reproduction number that’s going to be an artefact. It’s not going to be real. It’s going to be the result of limited testing,” he said.

Read more:

Rapid COVID-19 tests – When to take one, and what to do if it’s positive

Provinces might have scaled back their testing capacity during comparatively quieter times, and are now having trouble keeping up, he said. “We’ve never had great TTI capacity: test, trace and isolate capacity,” he said.

The other problem is Omicron itself, he said, and its ability to spread much faster than health systems can test for it.

“It’s crazy contagious. I’ve been saying that Delta is the most contagious respiratory virus we’ve ever seen in modern times. Omicron leaves Delta in the dust,” Deonandan said.

“It’s so contagious that everyone’s going to be exposed in a matter of weeks, everybody. So, you can’t test everybody in a matter of weeks.”


Click to play video: 'Confusion, frustration as rapid antigen tests demand soars across Canada'



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Confusion, frustration as rapid antigen tests demand soars across Canada


Confusion, frustration as rapid antigen tests demand soars across Canada

We have to slow the wave of infections somehow, Razak said.

“In the coming weeks, everyone in this province, in this country, is probably going to develop some immunity to Omicron, either by being vaccinated or getting sick,” he said.

Read more:

Boosters not enough to blunt Omicron wave, experts say: ‘There isn’t time’

“We can slow the wave and slowing the wave means the public health measures we’ve always talked about. So it’s restricted access to venues for only those who are vaccinated, ensuring good ventilation, wearing a mask, not going into a public setting if you’ve been sick, reducing the size of gatherings for the holidays,” he said.

“No single thing is a magic bullet, but everything together starts to reduce the exposure and the risk of the numbers. And it gives time for more vaccines to be delivered.”

In the meantime, if you think you have been exposed to COVID-19 or are showing symptoms and you’re unable to quickly find a test, both Deonandan and Razak suggest you act cautiously and follow the advice of your local public health unit.

Symptoms of Omicron COVID-19 infection can include cough, fatigue and congestion or runny nose, according to the World Health Organization. If you have those, Deonandan says, stay home.

“We err on the side of caution. So if you’ve got symptoms, we assume that you’ve got the disease and we ask you to stay home and isolate until the symptoms abate. And if you’ve got rapid tests, we can use those as well. And that’s where we are,” he said.

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Looking for the next mystery bestseller? This crime bookstore can solve the case

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WINNIPEG – Some 250 coloured tacks pepper a large-scale world map among bookshelves at Whodunit Mystery Bookstore.

Estonia, Finland, Japan and even Fenwick, Ont., have pins representing places outside Winnipeg where someone has ordered a page-turner from the independent bookstore that specializes in mystery and crime fiction novels.

For 30 years, the store has been offering fans of Agatha Christie’s Hercule Poirot or Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes a place to get lost in whodunits both old and new.

Jack and Wendy Bumsted bought the shop in the Crescentwood neighbourhood in 2007 from another pair of mystery lovers.

The married couple had been longtime customers of the store. Wendy Bumsted grew up reading Perry Mason novels while her husband was a historian with vast knowledge of the crime fiction genre.

At the time, Jack Bumsted was retiring from teaching at the University of Manitoba when he was looking for his next venture.

“The bookstore came up and we bought it, I think, within a week,” Wendy Bumsted said in an interview.

“It never didn’t seem like a good idea.”

In the years since the Bumsteds took ownership, the family has witnessed the decline in mail-order books, the introduction of online retailers, a relocation to a new space next to the original, a pandemic and the death of beloved co-owner Jack Bumsted in 2020.

But with all the changes that come with owning a small business, customers continue to trust their next mystery fix will come from one of the shelves at Whodunit.

Many still request to be called about books from specific authors, or want to be notified if a new book follows their favourite format. Some arrive at the shop like clockwork each week hoping to get suggestions from Wendy Bumsted or her son on the next big hit.

“She has really excellent instincts on what we should be getting and what we should be promoting,” Micheal Bumsted said of his mother.

Wendy Bumsted suggested the store stock “Thursday Murder Club,” the debut novel from British television host Richard Osman, before it became a bestseller. They ordered more copies than other bookstores in Canada knowing it had the potential to be a hit, said Michael Bumsted.

The store houses more than 18,000 new and used novels. That’s not including the boxes of books that sit in Wendy Bumsted’s tiny office, or the packages that take up space on some of the only available seating there, waiting to be added to the inventory.

Just as the genre has evolved, so has the Bumsteds’ willingness to welcome other subjects on their shelves — despite some pushback from loyal customers and initially the Bumsted patriarch.

For years, Jack Bumsted refused to sell anything outside the crime fiction genre, including his own published books. Instead, he would send potential buyers to another store, but would offer to sign the books if they came back with them.

Wendy Bumsted said that eventually changed in his later years.

Now, about 15 per cent of the store’s stock is of other genres, such as romance or children’s books.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced them to look at expanding their selection, as some customers turned to buying books through the store’s website, which is set up to allow purchasers to get anything from the publishers the Bumsteds have contracts with.

In 2019, the store sold fewer than 100 books online. That number jumped to more than 3,000 in 2020, as retailers had to deal with pandemic lockdowns.

After years of running a successful mail-order business, the store was able to quickly adapt when it had to temporarily shut its doors, said Michael Bumsted.

“We were not a store…that had to figure out how to get books to people when they weren’t here.”

He added being a community bookstore with a niche has helped the family stay in business when other retailers have struggled. Part of that has included building lasting relationships.

“Some people have put it in their wills that their books will come to us,” said Wendy Bumsted.

Some of those collections have included tips on traveling through Asia in the early 2000s or the history of Australian cricket.

Micheal Bumsted said they’ve had to learn to be patient with selling some of these more obscure titles, but eventually the time comes for them to find a new home.

“One of the great things about physical books is that they can be there for you when you are ready for them.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 15, 2024.



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Labour Minister praises Air Canada, pilots union for avoiding disruptive strike

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MONTREAL – Canada’s labour minister is praising both Air Canada and the union representing about 5,200 of its pilots for averting a work stoppage that would have disrupted travel for hundreds of thousands of passengers.

Steven MacKinnon’s comments came in a statement shared to social media shortly after Canada’s largest air carrier announced it had reached a tentative labour deal with the Air Line Pilots Association.

MacKinnon thanked both sides and federal mediators, saying the airline and its pilots approached negotiations with “seriousness and a resolve to get a deal.”

The tentative agreement averts a strike or lockout that could have begun as early as Wednesday for Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, with flight cancellations expected before then.

The airline now says flights will continue as normal while union members vote on the tentative four-year contract.

Air Canada had called on the federal government to intervene in the dispute, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that would only happen if it became clear no negotiated agreement was possible.

This report from The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

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The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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As plant-based milk becomes more popular, brands look for new ways to compete

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When it comes to plant-based alternatives, Canadians have never had so many options — and nowhere is that choice more abundantly clear than in the milk section of the dairy aisle.

To meet growing demand, companies are investing in new products and technology to keep up with consumer tastes and differentiate themselves from all the other players on the shelf.

“The product mix has just expanded so fast,” said Liza Amlani, co-founder of the Retail Strategy Group.

She said younger generations in particular are driving growth in the plant-based market as they are consuming less dairy and meat.

Commercial sales of dairy milk have been weakening for years, according to research firm Mintel, likely in part because of the rise of plant-based alternatives — even though many Canadians still drink dairy.

The No. 1 reason people opt for plant-based milk is because they see it as healthier than dairy, said Joel Gregoire, Mintel’s associate director for food and drink.

“Plant-based milk, the one thing about it — it’s not new. It’s been around for quite some time. It’s pretty established,” said Gregoire.

Because of that, it serves as an “entry point” for many consumers interested in plant-based alternatives to animal products, he said.

Plant-based milk consumption is expected to continue growing in the coming years, according to Mintel research, with more options available than ever and more consumers opting for a diet that includes both dairy and non-dairy milk.

A 2023 report by Ernst & Young for Protein Industries Canada projected that the plant-based dairy market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2035, at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent.

Because of this growth opportunity, even well-established dairy or plant-based companies are stepping up their game.

It’s been more than three decades since Saint-Hyacinthe, Que.-based Natura first launched a line of soy beverages. Over the years, the company has rolled out new products to meet rising demand, and earlier this year launched a line of oat beverages that it says are the only ones with a stamp of approval from Celiac Canada.

Competition is tough, said owner and founder Nick Feldman — especially from large American brands, which have the money to ensure their products hit shelves across the country.

Natura has kept growing, though, with a focus on using organic ingredients and localized production from raw materials.

“We’re maybe not appealing to the mass market, but we’re appealing to the natural consumer, to the organic consumer,” Feldman said.

Amlani said brands are increasingly advertising the simplicity of their ingredient lists. She’s also noticing more companies offering different kinds of products, such as coffee creamers.

Companies are also looking to stand out through eye-catching packaging and marketing, added Amlani, and by competing on price.

Besides all the companies competing for shelf space, there are many different kinds of plant-based milk consumers can choose from, such as almond, soy, oat, rice, hazelnut, macadamia, pea, coconut and hemp.

However, one alternative in particular has enjoyed a recent, rapid ascendance in popularity.

“I would say oat is the big up-and-coming product,” said Feldman.

Mintel’s report found the share of Canadians who say they buy oat milk has quadrupled between 2019 and 2023 (though almond is still the most popular).

“There seems to be a very nice marriage of coffee and oat milk,” said Feldman. “The flavour combination is excellent, better than any other non-dairy alternative.”

The beverage’s surge in popularity in cafés is a big part of why it’s ascending so quickly, said Gregoire — its texture and ability to froth makes it a good alternative for lattes and cappuccinos.

It’s also a good example of companies making a strong “use case” for yet another new entrant in a competitive market, he said.

Amid the long-standing brands and new entrants, there’s another — perhaps unexpected — group of players that has been increasingly investing in plant-based milk alternatives: dairy companies.

For example, Danone has owned the Silk and So Delicious brands since an acquisition in 2014, and long-standing U.S. dairy company HP Hood LLC launched Planet Oat in 2018.

Lactalis Canada also recently converted its facility in Sudbury, Ont., to manufacture its new plant-based Enjoy! brand, with beverages made from oats, almonds and hazelnuts.

“As an organization, we obviously follow consumer trends, and have seen the amount of interest in plant-based products, particularly fluid beverages,” said Mark Taylor, president and CEO of Lactalis Canada, whose parent company Lactalis is the largest dairy products company in the world.

The facility was a milk processing plant for six decades, until Lactalis Canada began renovating it in 2022. It now manufactures not only the new brand, but also the company’s existing Sensational Soy brand, and is the company’s first dedicated plant-based facility.

“We’re predominantly a dairy company, and we’ll always predominantly be a dairy company, but we see these products as complementary,” said Taylor.

It makes sense that major dairy companies want to get in on plant-based milk, said Gregoire. The dairy business is large — a “cash cow,” if you will — but not really growing, while plant-based products are seeing a boom.

“If I’m looking for avenues of growth, I don’t want to be left behind,” he said.

Gregoire said there’s a potential for consumers to get confused with so many options, which is why it’s so important for brands to find a way to differentiate themselves, whether it’s with taste, health, or how well the drink froths for a latte.

Competition in a more crowded market is challenging, but Taylor believes it results in better products for consumers.

“It keeps you sharp, and it forces you to be really good at what you’re doing. It drives innovation,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.



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