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Economy grew 0.8% in October, sees gain in November, Statistics Canada says – CBC News

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The Canadian economy kept up its streak of monthly gains in October and appears to have done so again in November, which has left total economic activity within a statistical inch of where it was before COVID-19 hit.

While the labour market has since rebounded from steep losses seen over March and April of 2020, the same can’t be said of economic output.

Statistics Canada reported Thursday that total economic activity in October was 0.4 per cent below the pre-pandemic levels recorded in February 2020, with 0.8 per cent GDP growth for the month.

Preliminary data pointed to another gain in November that Statistics Canada said would leave the gap at just 0.1 per cent.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said getting GDP back to where it was in February 2020 is only one economic bellwether, but wouldn’t necessarily mean a full recovery once accounting for where the economy should be with population growth.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter is shown at the Ontario Legislature in Toronto in August 2018. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)

He warned that closing the gap could take a little longer because of an expected setback over December and January on the back of renewed public health restrictions.

“It’s just one sign along the road to recovery and … we’re likely going to have to repair more damage because of these latest restrictions in the coming year,” Porter said.

Heading into the Omicron storm, the Canadian economy posted its fifth straight monthly gain with October’s growth. The 0.8 per cent showing matched the preliminary estimate released last month.

Gains for the month were seen across most sectors, including manufacturing, whose rebound of 1.8 per cent in October more than offset a September contraction.

Driving that sector was output related to auto manufacturing, despite what the statistics office notes is an ongoing shortage of semiconductor chips, among other supply-chain issues hampering consistent production.

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“There is actually still a lot of room for that sector to recover,” Porter said. “That’s actually one area I’m looking for much better news in the year ahead.”

Also helping in October were gains in retail trade, construction and home resale activity. The arts and entertainment sector was also up in October, helped by larger capacity limits for audiences.

TD economist Omar Abdelrahman said those very sectors will, once again, feel the brunt of tightened capacity limits among other renewed restrictions. He also said in a note that consumers could again focus their spending on goods and exacerbate supply-chain issues.

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Preliminary data points to a sixth straight month of gains in November as Statistics Canada gave an early estimate of a rise in GDP of 0.3 per cent for the month.

Statistics Canada will finalize November’s figures in early February.

RBC economist Claire Fan said significant trade disruptions brought on by severe flooding in British Columbia could hold back growth in November, and the pandemic could add to the drag into December.

She wrote in a note that high vaccination rates, extended government benefits and provinces speeding up the rollout of booster shots should all help curb the economic threat from this latest wave of COVID-19.

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham says even after accounting for the possibility of a modest pullback in December, GDP is still running modestly ahead of the Bank of Canada’s forecast of economic growth in the quarter, at an annual rate of four per cent.

Grantham wrote in a note that the pace of economic growth likely won’t be enough for the central bank to change the timing for a first interest rate hike.

The Bank of Canada has said it doesn’t foresee a first increase to its key policy rate from its rock-bottom level of 0.25 per cent until at least April 2022.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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