“We’re sort of thinking maybe the direct impact of shutting down the highways, closing the rails, the Trans Mountain pipeline being down and then the retail impacts, we’re kind of thinking maybe three-tenths of a percentage point,” he said.
“It would shave off growth for 2021.”
He said the economic impact estimate does not forecast the repair and rebuilding costs, which the government has said will be massive.
Finance Minister Selina Robinson said recently she will provide a cleared picture of the province’s finances in her February budget. Last month she said B.C. was heading for a strong economic recovery after a 3.4 per cent decline in 2020, but uncertainties due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the flood damage costs remain.
Earlier this month, Robinson said the province’s Economic Forecast Council predicted economic growth in B.C. of 5.3 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 per cent in 2022.
Peacock said the economic impact of the floods would have been felt more if the province was not in a period of economic rebound.
“So three-tenths of a percentage point doesn’t feel or sound like much when you are talking four per cent growth. But if we’re in our normal world of two per cent to two-and-a-half per cent growth, then three-tenths of a per cent is much more meaningful,” he said.
The closure of highways and rail lines due to flooding and limited access to port facilities in Vancouver sent alarms to government and industry to quickly repair infrastructure and keep supply chains in operation, even if it meant moving goods on different highways or rail routes, said Peacock.
“One thing that has become very clear for sure for government and policy-makers is that this has been kind of not a warning but a very clear indicator of just how dependent we are on some infrastructure and transportation connections,” he said.
The four-lane Coquihalla Highway, the major road transportation route to and from Vancouver, reopened to commercial traffic Dec. 20 after floods and slides damaged 20 sections of the highway, including seven bridges.
Officials at Vancouver’s port, the largest in Canada, said rail service is flowing smoothly again following major disruptions due to damaged rail lines.
“While the reopening of the Coquihalla Highway will provide renewed access for the movement of goods by truck throughout the Interior of B.C. and into Alberta, the majority of volumes across all sectors moving to and from the port move by rail,” said Vancouver Fraser Port Authority in a statement. “At this time, both railways serving the port are currently operating consistently between Vancouver and Kamloops.”
James Thompson, vice-president of western operations for Canadian National Railway, said access to the Vancouver port was cut off from Nov. 14 to Dec. 4 due to 58 damaged sites in the Fraser Canyon area from Ashcroft to Yale.
It took 400 employees and 110 pieces of equipment working 24 hours a day, seven days a week to repair the tracks, with the largest job being a major washout in the Fraser Canyon at Jackass Mountain, he said.
“We put 282,000 yards of rock to backfill what was taken away in the slide and storm, and to put that in approximate terms that are easy to understand, that’s approximately 25,000 18-wheeler loads of ballast rock, riprap and other materials at that one location,” said Thompson.
CN was effectively shut down from Kamloops to Vancouver, forcing the company to move some of its traffic to Prince Rupert, he said.
Thompson said the storm was a one of a kind event. But coming just months after wildfires in the same area that closed rail service, it only served as a reminder of the power of weather in the era of climate change.
“We do try and plan and build contingencies and resiliency into our network. But at the end of the day, I can’t say it any better than this: the railroad is an outdoor sport and Mother Nature makes the rules,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 26, 2021.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
