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Opinion | The year in Virginia politics and policy – The Washington Post

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It seems a long time ago, but 2021 is the year Virginia became the first former Confederate state to abolish the death penalty.

That, along with a decade of Democrats shutting out Republicans in statewide elections, prompted many media pundits to proclaim Virginia as solidly, perhaps permanently, blue.

The November elections disproved that assessment.

It is tempting to read the outcome of a single election cycle as transformative or at least having some lasting meaning for the status of the major political parties. Just as much was made of Virginia’s transition from red to blue, many observers now look to the 2021 Virginia election as signaling a new political reality in the commonwealth. Yet, had Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe not uttered those fateful 12 words in the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce/Schar School debate, analysts might instead be interpreting the outcome in the context of a long Democratic trend with no end in sight.

The Republican sweep of the offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general and the GOP winning a majority in the House of Delegates show that Virginia is politically in the mainstream of American politics, a state dominated by moderates who punish perceived excesses toward the left or the right.

From 2012 through the 2020 election, the electoral muscle of Virginia’s slightly left-of-center suburbs, mostly surrounding Washington and Richmond and in Hampton Roads, favored Democrats over the GOP and its increasingly strident brand of conservatism. That was never truer than the four years when Donald Trump was in the spotlight, either as a Republican candidate or as president, a period that culminated in his 10-percentage point defeat at Democrat Joe Biden’s hands in 2020.

Republicans were in a tailspin in Virginia at the start of 2021 from a fresh electoral defeat worsened by the Jan. 6 pro-Trump siege at the U.S. Capitol. Since the 2013 election, the GOP had held no statewide elective office in the commonwealth. Democrats have owned both U.S. Senate seats since 2009 and won a majority of Virginia’s U.S. House seats in 2018. The 2019 legislative elections gave the Democrats state Senate and House majorities for the first time since 1999.

The last time Democrats enjoyed such wall-to-wall power in Virginia was the late 1960s, before the state’s first elected Republican governor, Linwood Holton, broke their stranglehold.

This time, the Democrats’ dominance was fleeting because Republicans turned out last month in unprecedented numbers and because suburbanites who had leaned Democratic were unimpressed with what they saw from the party and wanted change.

It’s a stretch to say that Virginia is now right of the political center because of one election. Every election is different with campaigns litigated over ever-changing social, economic and governmental situations.

In 2020, as with the three preceding years, Trump’s low esteem in Virginia’s educated, affluent suburbs that are closely tied economically to the federal government galvanized voters in support of Democrats.

A year later, however, with Trump out of office if not out of sight, with Biden’s job-approval ratings dropping over his domestic policy agenda stalemated in a Democratic Congress and a foreign policy debacle in Afghanistan and with Virginia Democrats swiftly and aggressively enacting progressive legislation, voters became uneasy.

Republicans read the tea leaves correctly, nominated a fresh face to lead a diverse ticket and made their case for change that addressed Virginians’ real-life concerns. McAuliffe unwittingly aided their cause, sticking with an inflexible strategy of claiming GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin was a Trump proxy at the expense of touting Democratic achievements and his own popular policy proposals.

Largely on the potent and timely GOP arguments over who controls local public-school policy, the promise of tax cuts amid rampant inflation and support for law enforcement after a year of sometimes violent unrest, the GOP influenced enough suburban voters to suppress the Democrats’ inherent advantages in suburban and exurban localities.

Sometimes an election outcome, especially a close one, results primarily from the idiosyncrasies of the candidates’ campaigns, their strategies, short-term shifting in the public focus on issues that drive voting and events over which the candidates and parties have no control.

There is no evidence in public opinion or exit polling that in 2021 Virginia suddenly shifted right. Virginia started the year as a competitive two-party state and ended 2021 the same, although with a different party mostly in control of the levers of power.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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