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Posthaste: Five market predictions in the wake of the 'hottest year in Canadian real estate history' – Financial Post

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Happy New Year (somewhere) !

The last day of 2021 seems a good time to look back on what some call “the hottest year in Canadian real estate history,” and ponder what’s in store for the coming year.

In a new report, online realtor Zoocasa makes five market predictions after an extraordinary year that will be remembered for record-breaking sales and price gains of over 20%.

1) Low housing supply is not a quick fix

Low inventory of homes for sale proved a major driver of prices in 2021. Zoocasa said the Canadian Real Estate Association cites only four times in history when the national total months of inventory on the market dropped below two months, and they were all in 2021.

When there were quieter months in the market this past year it was not because of waning demand but because there were fewer homes for sale.

“Put simply, we are seeing record-breaking low levels of inventory, where there are significantly more buyers in the market than there are properties to buy,” said Zoocasa CEO Lauren Haw.

“Supply will be a critical metric to watch heading into the new year – especially knowing that we may see a hotter January and February than usual, as buyers look to lock in a mortgage rate before next year’s anticipated increases.”

Nor do housing experts expect this to change anytime soon.

“The fact is that the supply issues we faced going into 2020, which became much worse heading into 2021, are even tighter as we move into 2022,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist.

2) Mortgage rate hikes may not be so bad this time

Interest rate hikes, signalled by the Bank of Canada to come in mid-2022, are on the minds of home buyers and home owners alike.

But how bad will it be?

To find out Zoocasa looked back to the last time Bank of Canada rates rose in 2018. That year there were three hikes and real estate activity did slow, with prices falling 4.9% year over year and sales down 19%.

But housing experts say the decline was mostly brought on that year by the introduction of the stress test, which cut affordability for the average home buyers by 20%, said Zoocasa.

“Although the last time interest rates rose we saw sales activity cool down, it’s important to remember that this change went hand in hand with the implementation of the mortgage stress test, which dramatically impacted the amount that prospective buyers could qualify for,” said Haw. “And, because Canadians have been stress tested to qualify for their mortgages at rates upwards of 5%, we have been prepared as best as possible to weather an increase in rates.”

Under current stress test rules, fixed mortgage rates would have to rise to 3.25% for the amount buyers are qualifying for to change, she said.

3) Home prices will keep going up

The race to beat mortgage rate hikes, continuing COVID restrictions and the low supply of homes on the market are expected to keep driving prices higher in the new year.

CREA predicts national prices will rise 7.6% by the end of the year. Realtors’ forecasts aim higher, with RE/MAX predicting a 9.2 per cent increase and Royal LePage, 10.5%.

Zoocasa said, judging by the 2018 experience, it will be the more affordable homes, like condos and townhouses, that will see the most price growth, as interest rates rise.

In 2018, the prices for condo townhomes and apartments in Toronto rose by 9% and 10% respectively while detached home prices decreased by 4% year over year.

Royal LePage also predicts that in 2022 condo prices will lead growth in Toronto with a 12% rise.

4) Virtual home hunting is here to stay

Even after COVID-19 restrictions eased in the second half of the year and open houses resumed, virtual home hunting has remained popular, said Zoocasa. With access to online tours and able to browse listings on real estate apps, buyers “aren’t necessarily in a rush to go back to the old way of buying houses.”

5) Housing will be an election issue — again

Housing affordability was a big issue in this year’s Federal election, but Ontario voters can expect to hear more promises in provincial and municipal elections slated for 2022.

Voters might want to pay attention because much of the policy that actually affects housing, such as planning and zoning laws, is managed at provincial or municipal levels.

Posthaste would like to wish all our readers a very happy new year. We’ll be back Jan. 5 after the holiday.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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