Toward the end of 2021, President Biden’s approval ratings took a dive. Two things in particular need to improve for Biden to make a turnaround — the pandemic needs to lessen and price increases need to let up.
Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images
Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images
From control of Congress and the strength of the Biden presidency to potential Jan. 6 committee revelations and the future of abortion rights, there’s a lot at stake in 2022.
We have lots of questions about what’s ahead. Here are six:
1. Can Biden turn it around?
President Biden ended 2021 with the lowest approval ratings of his presidency in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. The ongoing pandemic, rising inflation, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal and Democratic infighting over legislation hurt how people see his presidency.
In fact, Americans’ view of how Biden’s handling his job is historically bad. His approval rating at the end of his first year in office is the second worst of any president since World War II, according to Gallup. Of course, we’re now in a more polarized time, and politics isn’t static. Other presidents have hit lows and turned it around — Ronald Reagan was at 35% in 1983, and Barack Obama was at 40% in 2011, but both handily won reelection a year later.
Two things in particular need to improve for Biden to make a turnaround — the pandemic needs to lessen and price increases need to let up.
Toward the end of 2021, Biden made his strongest indication yet that he will run for reelection, but if the 79-year-old’s political fortunes don’t get better, there may be a furious effort to find a Democratic replacement.
2. Will we get back to any sense of normal?
The coronavirus has taken a big bite out of our sense of normalcy for nearly two years. Americans are understandably fatigued from yo-yo-ing restrictions, mask wearing and school shutdowns.
Even if necessary to protect public health, these measures have been emotionally taxing, especially after what looked like the chance to get back to some degree of normal last summer, only to be largely sidelined again because of the delta and omicron variants.
It’s taken a political toll for sure and exacerbated sharp political divisions. Anger and fear are incredible motivators to vote, but an incumbent needs to give people hope to have a chance to win reelection.
3. What, if anything, are Democrats able to pass?
Oh, hello again, Joe Manchin.
For those tired of hearing about the West Virginia senator’s legislative hopes and dreams, we have bad news: They will likely continue to be a topic in Washington for the better part of 2022. He continues to hold the key to Biden’s more expansive legislative agenda. After months of going back and forth with Biden and other congressional Democrats, Manchin jumped ship toward the end of 2021.
There’s a debate going on in Democratic circles over how to deal with Manchin and the party’s legislative agenda. Democrats have to decide whether to try for a further-scaled-down social safety net and climate bill, focusing on a few key parts, like universal pre-K, health care and climate, or to break the measure up into smaller pieces.
There’s a debate going on in Democratic circles over how to deal with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and the party’s legislative agenda.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
What’s more, there is growing pressure on Democratic leaders to address voting rights, which have been scaled back in many GOP-led states. That likely means exploring a carveout of some sort in the legislative filibuster. At any rate, the clock is ticking because Democrats are facing an uphill battle to retain the House.
4. Do Republicans take back control of Congress and, if so, what will they do?
As noted, Republicans are favored to take back the House. The Senate, which is currently 50-50, is also up for grabs, though Democrats appear to be in a better position for now in the upper chamber. But what are Republicans going to run on, and what would they do with that power should they win?
They have been criticized by some as being more the “party of no” than one interested in governing. When they were last in power, they passed budget-blowing tax cuts, but were unable to repeal the Affordable Care Act, which is growing more popular, because they had nothing to replace it with. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell played into the “party of no” narrative. Axios reports he is firmly against releasing any kind of legislative agenda ahead of the midterm elections.
Others, like House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, disagree with that. He released a “Parents Bill of Rights,” a response to the debate over parental control of schools because of how America’s racial history is taught in classrooms. Does that continue to be a main issue, or will there be another outrage flavor of the season?
By the way, elections are right around the corner, with primaries beginning in March. Those primaries will also give us the first look at the power of former President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging endorsements.
Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., vice chair of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, faces a primary challenge from a Trump-backed candidate.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
5. What does the Jan. 6 select committee come up with — and when?
The congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection will take a more public role this year with hearings and more potential revelations. It had issued dozens of subpoenas toward the end of last year, with some Trump allies willing and others less willing to participate. We will find out, for instance, if the Justice Department will file more contempt charges, like it did for former Trump strategist Steve Bannon.
The committee has gathered lots of information, interviewing some 300 witnesses, for example. It could start public hearings in the coming months, with a report expected ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. Committee members feel a sense of urgency to get its findings out because if Republicans win the House, they will in all probability shut down the investigation.
Their evidence and documentation of the siege will be key because Americans are as divided as ever. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out Monday reveals that while 9 in 10 Democrats see what happened on Jan. 6 as an insurrection and a threat to democracy, just 1 in 10 Republicans do.
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6. Does the Supreme Court severely curtail abortion rights?
In late 2021, the high court certainly looked like it was headed in that direction. Questioning from the court’s majority-conservative justices strongly indicated they were in favor of upholding restrictions in Mississippi, making it illegal to have an abortion later than 15 weeks.
Currently, abortions are legal up to about 24 weeks or the first two trimesters. That was a central holding in the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.
If the court does uphold the Mississippi law, it could open a floodgate of other restrictions in other states. The decision is expected this summer, just as the midterm elections will be heating up.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
