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COVID-19: Omicron peak could be soon, some estimates show – CTV News

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Omicron’s march may be slowing slightly, at least in some provinces, where a government website monitoring virus infection estimates shows peak infections could be reached within days.

In Manitoba, where the test positivity rate is now 48 per cent, this province is outpacing the rest of Canada in active COVID-19 cases.

But infections could be hitting a peak soon.

According to a government website that estimates trends in COVID-19 prevalence based on existing epidemiological information, Winnipeg is expected to start seeing cases decline in the next seven to 10 days.

The tool is designed for the Canadian Armed Forces to understand their risk level in different areas of Canada and internationally, and isn’t used to advise other aspects of government.

“The tool was made available globally to provide easy access to CAF medical advisors irrespective of their location and as part of the Government of Canada open data initiative,” a spokesperson told CTV News in an email. “It is important to note that the numbers found in this model are not case numbers, but rather estimates based on existing epidemiological information.”

Projections on the website are similar for Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, where cases are also expected to drop in the coming weeks.

And B.C.’s top doctor says the COVID-19 peak there is a few weeks away.

“We may be entering soon into the place where we will see a decline,” Dr. Bonnie Henry said in an update Tuesday.

Peak COVID-19 may be close, according to these estimates, but predicting what happens next is more difficult.

The decline could be quick, as seen in other countries like South Africa, or it may be slower.

And hospitalizations, which lag behind case counts, will continue to rise.

Experts say that in the end, Omicron will have infected millions, but it’s unknown what impact this could have on immunity for the future.

“When you think about getting infected with Omicron, the thing we certainly can’t assume is that infection from Omicron is going to give us long term immunity against other variants that might emerge,” Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor at the University of Manitoba and Canada Research Chair in the molecular pathogenesis of emerging viruses, told CTV News. “That is something we do not know.”

Shaneen Robinson-Desjarlais knows firsthand that past infection doesn’t guarantee immunity; she has had COVID-19 twice in the past nine months.

“Having almost died from COVID, saying my prayers, and getting ready to say goodbye to my family — I was that sick,” she said.

She had just delivered her baby boy when she was hospitalized with the Beta variant, struggling to breathe on her own. It took months to recover.

Last week, a rapid test showed a positive, and body aches and exhaustion followed.

“I believe that because I was vaccinated, this variant took it easy on my body, which I was thankful for,” she said.

The severity of Omicron is also still being debated. For many, it present with milder symptoms, but hospitalizations seem to be telling a different story. And last week, Manitoba saw a 51 per cent increase in the number of people sent to hospital with COVID-19.

With files from CTVNews.ca’s Alexandra Mae Jones

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Spy service officer denies threatening Montreal man who was later imprisoned in Sudan

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OTTAWA – A CSIS official denies they threatened a Montreal man who was later imprisoned and allegedly tortured by authorities in Sudan.

The spy service employee, who can only be identified as Witness C to protect their identity, is testifying in Abousfian Abdelrazik’s lawsuit against the federal government.

Abdelrazik claims Canadian officials arranged for his arbitrary imprisonment, encouraged his detention by Sudanese authorities and actively obstructed his repatriation to Canada for several years.

The Sudanese-born Abdelrazik was arrested in September 2003 while in his native country to see his ailing mother.

Witness C, who had previously spoken to Abdelrazik in Montreal, travelled to Khartoum to interrogate him.

In Federal Court today, the witness acknowledged telling Abdelrazik in Canada that he should not travel, but characterized that as sincere advice to protect him rather than a threat.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Vancouver officer sexually assaulted colleague, but police group chat targeted victim

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VANCOUVER – A disciplinary investigation has found a former Vancouver police sergeant shared “disrespectful” commentary on a fellow officer’s court testimony about being sexually assaulted by a colleague.

The decision against Narinder Dosanjh, obtained by The Canadian Press, includes the running commentary on the woman’s testimony — apparently written by someone inside the courtroom — that calls her a “bad drunk” and says there was “no way” her case would be proved.

Former New Westminster police chief Dave Jansen, the external officer who rendered the decision against Dosanjh, says his assessment accounts for a culture of treating officers who testify against each other as “rats.”

Former Vancouver constable Jagraj Roger Berar was convicted in 2021 and sentenced to a year in jail for assaulting the woman, who can’t be identified because of a publication ban on her name.

Jansen says in his ruling, dated Oct. 11, that the comments in a Vancouver police group chat appear “supportive” of Berar and reflect “all-too-common myths” about women who make sexual assault allegations.

While Jansen found Dosanjh committed discreditable conduct by sharing the chats, a complaint against a more-senior Vancouver officer who was inside the courtroom, and who the victim and other officers believed wrote the commentary, were not substantiated.

The ruling says Jansen, who retired as New Westminster’s chief constable, would accept submissions before deciding how Dosanjh should be punished.

The woman who was assaulted was the complainant in the disciplinary investigation, and said in an interview she felt “vindicated” by Jansen’s decision because it “truly paints what I’ve been through,” after reporting a fellow officer for sexual assault.

She said many other women in municipal policing fear speaking out about ill-treatment at work, and some have told her about being assaulted and harassed but feared ruining their careers if they complained.

“This decision is important for those women to see,” she said. “It shows the tides are changing. Like, this is the first win I’ve had.”

A spokesman for the Surrey Police Service, where Dosanjh now works, did not immediately answer a question about how he was penalized, and said Dosanjh declined an interview request with The Canadian Press.

In his decision, Jansen said there was an “unfortunate but often pervasive” culture of treating officers who complain as “‘rats’, who betrayed their colleagues.”

“In terms of the messages themselves, Sergeant Dosanjh alleges that they are not degrading, humiliating or derogatory and do not attack the personal character of the complainant. I disagree,” Jansen wrote.

The decision includes a screenshot of the commentary about the complainant, who said the order of the messages appeared to refer to her evidence while she was being cross-examined and suggested the comments were written by someone listening to her testimony.

The commentary on a Vancouver police chat group on the Signal messaging app said the victim “wore a wire twice,” and “admitted in cross to possibly drinking way more alcohol than she originally claimed.”

“Her memory is super hazy and there’s no way you can prove beyond reasonable doubt,” the person wrote.

“And she admitted that she is really bad drunk,” they added.

Another message said it was a “nail in the coffin” of the case that video showed the complainant “cuddling, holding hands” with Berar.

The victim, who became aware of the commentary when a friend in the department showed them to her, was distressed by the messages and disputed their accuracy, said Jansen.

“The comments also appear to reflect some of the all-too-common myths around women making allegations of sexual assault. Some of these myths include the belief that because a victim socialized with the perpetrator, or engaged in some consensual activity with him, therefore she must have consented to the assault,” he wrote.

Jansen’s decision said Dosanjh shared the messages with a fellow officer after getting them from a “VPD chat group that he claims he knew little about, from a co-worker he claims not to be able to identify.”

The decision said other officers believed the commentary was written bya more-senior officer in the department who had been present at the trial, but Jansen said the discreditable conduct complaint against that person was unsubstantiated.

The decision said Dosanjh claimed he was the “fall guy” and “a pawn in a broader game.”

Jansen’s decision said Dosanjh was a senior officer and supervisor who was aware of the “vulnerability of victims of sexual crimes and of the myths that surround sexual assault victims.”

It said Dosanjh’s “distribution of these messages that were disrespectful of an alleged victim of sexual violence who was also a co-worker, should they become public, would likely discredit the reputation of the police force.”

The Vancouver Police Department did not immediately provide comment on Jansen’s decision.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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Beetles from B.C. settling in Nova Scotia, taking up the fight to rescue hemlocks

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FREDERICTON – The offspring of beetles imported from British Columbia are ready to take up the fight against an invasive insect that is killing hemlock trees in Nova Scotia.

Last fall and spring, about 5,000 Laricobius nigrinus beetles — affectionately called Lari by scientists — made an overnight journey from the West Coast.

Lucas Roscoe, research scientist with the Canadian Forest Service, says in the fight against the woolly adelgid that is destroying swaths of hemlock trees in Nova Scotia, the first step was to make sure the Lari beetle can survive a Nova Scotia winter.

The one-to-two-millimetre black flying beetles were released across six sites in Nova Scotia that had the woolly adelgids.

In one of the sites, scientists placed cages of imported beetles and about 60 per cent of them were able to survive the winter in Nova Scotia, which Roscoe says is an encouraging rate.

He says the woolly adelgid was first seen in southwestern Nova Scotia in 2017 and the peppercorn-sized insect, aided by climate change, has since spread north.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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