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Economy

Canadian dollar weakens as BoC foregoes rate hike

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The Canadian dollar fell against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada surprised some investors by leaving interest rates on hold, offsetting support for the currency from higher oil prices.

The Bank of Canada will soon start hiking interest rates from record lows to combat inflation, Governor Tiff Macklem said, after the central bank left its policy rate at a record low of 0.25%.

Money markets had seen about a 70% chance that the central bank would hike on Wednesday for the first time since October 2018. They now expect lift-off in March.

“The disappointment from the Bank of Canada will quickly fade while the tailwind from oil is significantly growing,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive.

“The open question is how much of the recent rise is fundamental and how much is political.”

Rising political tensions between Russia and Ukraine have added to concerns about further disruption in an already-tight market for oil, one of Canada’s major exports. U.S. crude oil futures settled 2% higher at $87.35 a barrel.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.4% lower at 1.2680 to the greenback, or 78.86 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.2560 to 1.2688.

The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies and Wall Street gave back its earlier gains as the Federal Reserve signaled that it is likely to raise U.S. interest rates in March and later launch a significant reduction in its asset holdings.

Canadian government bond yields rose across the curve although by much less than U.S. rates. The 10-year was up 2.2 basis points at 1.826%.

Last Wednesday, it touched its highest level in nearly three years at 1.905%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Sandra Maler)

Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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