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Portugal focuses on post-pandemic politics ahead of poll – BBC News

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Reuters

Portugal’s outgoing Prime Minister António Costa began the campaign for Sunday’s general election by promising to “turn the page on the pandemic” – an echo of how he claimed to have “turned the page on austerity” after first taking office in 2015.

He argued that to entrench economic recovery Portugal needs stability rather than upsets, exemplified by parliament’s rejection of his government’s 2022 budget, which triggered this snap election.

After the last election in 2019, and despite lacking a majority, Mr Costa – who is the leader of the Socialist Party (PS) – did not seek deals with other parties on the left of the kind that from 2015 assured him of a four-year term.

In its two years of existence, his new minority government had fraught relations with the Left Bloc (BE), the third largest party, but in November, the smaller Communist Party (PCP) also voted against the budget bill, citing a failure to invest in public services or combat labour market abuses.

With relations on the left in tatters, Mr Costa dismissed his erstwhile partners as “irresponsible” and eventually asked voters for “an absolute majority”, despite this being seen as taboo, because the only PS leader to achieve one, José Sócrates, currently faces corruption charges (which he denies).

Before the official campaign began on 16 January, a majority seemed within reach, with voter surveys giving the PS a lead of up to 10 points over the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) led by Rui Rio, a former mayor of Porto.

But the gap has narrowed: the latest major poll from Lisbon’s Catholic University, released on Thursday night, shows the PS on 36% and PSD on 33%, and some others have even put the PSD ahead, following a series of lively televised debates and interviews.

The presence of the free-market Liberal Initiative (IL) as well as the conservative People’s Party (CDS-PP) spiced up the debate on the economy, while animal rights party PAN and “red-green” Livre (“Free”) sparked conversations with proposals for unconditional basic income.

As the PS stumbled, Mr Costa switched tack, declaring that he was, after all, open to deals.

Far-right Party Chega leader André Ventura speaks during an electoral campaign for the 2022 legislative elections, in Viana do Castelo, Portugal, on 21 January 2022

EPA

Meanwhile, a fight is in prospect for third place between the Left Bloc and Chega (“Enough”), whose leader André Ventura – its sole member in the last parliament – grabs headlines by railing against corruption and the Roma community, and calling for chemical castration for sex offenders.

PSD leader Rui Rio – whose platform includes cuts in corporate tax – sees the Liberals and CDS-PP as potential coalition partners, but rules out deals with Chega, saying that Mr Ventura would have to decide whether to vote down a right-of-centre government, risking the left regaining power.

But some commentators doubt that Mr Rio’s resolution will hold, given that who takes office will depend on not only which is the largest party, but whether the left or the right has more seats.

“Whoever comes first, Chega will be indispensable on the right for the formation of a government,” said António Costa Pinto, a professor at Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences.

He believes the PSD would do a deal with Chega “despite what it says” even if relations would be “complex”.

One issue on which parties on the right agree is the need for private providers to have a greater role in reducing waiting lists in Portugal’s National Health Service (SNS) in the wake of the pandemic, and for the long term. They want more such openings in education too.

Ricardo Baptista Leite, the PSD health spokesman and top candidate for Lisbon, estimates that more than two-thirds of Portugal’s economy is state-controlled, fostering “clientelism” that holds it back.

“We need to generate wealth in order to redistribute it,” he said, arguing that a vote for the PSD is one for “absolute uncertainty”.

The Socialists are more cautious on free-market reforms, and any agreements it reaches with other left parties would be likely to block them, and instead contain measures to boost salaries.

There are areas of political consensus, such as on Portugal’s commitment to renewable energy, which provides 58% of consumption needs, fourth in the EU.

But if Mr Costa tries to go it alone, or the right takes power, trade union leaders told the BBC they will respond to any attacks on workers’ rights.

After the election, it will be up to Portugal’s president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, to decide who to ask to try to form a government. He is likely to turn first to the leader of the party with most seats.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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NDP declares victory in federal Winnipeg byelection, Conservatives concede

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The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.

The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.

With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.

Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.

Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.

The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Another incumbent BC United MLA to run as Independent as Kirkpatrick re-enters race

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VANCOUVER – An incumbent BC United legislative member has reversed her decision not to seek re-election and has announced she’ll run as an Independent in the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano in the upcoming British Columbia election.

Karin Kirkpatrick has been a vocal critic of BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s decision last month to suspend the party’s campaign and throw support behind the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad.

Kirkpatrick announced her retirement this year, but said Monday that her decision to re-enter the race comes as a direct result of Falcon’s actions, which would force middle-of-the-road voters to “swing to the left” to the NDP or to move further right to the Conservatives.

“I did hear from a lot of constituents and a lot of people who were emailing me from across B.C. … that they didn’t have anybody to vote for,” she said. “And so, I looked even at myself, and I looked at my riding, and I said, ‘Well, I no longer have anybody to vote for in my own riding.’ It was clearly an issue of this missing middle for the more moderate voter.”

She said voters who reached out “don’t want to vote for an NDP government but felt deeply uncomfortable” supporting the provincial Conservatives, citing Rustad’s tolerance of what she calls “extreme views and conspiracy theorists.”

Kirkpatrick joins four other incumbent Opposition MLAs running as Independents, including Peace River South’s Mike Bernier, Peace River North’s Dan Davies, Prince George-Cariboo’s Coralee Oakes and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies.

“To be honest, we talk just about every day,” Kirkpatrick said about her fellow BC United incumbents now running as Independents. “We’re all feeling the same way. We all need to kind of hold each other up and make sure we’re doing the right thing.”

She added that a number of first-time candidates formerly on the BC United ticket are contacting the group of incumbents running for election, and the group is working together “as good moderates who respect each other and lift each other up.”

But Kirkpatrick said it’s also too early to talk about the future of BC United or the possibility of forming a new party.

“The first thing we need to do is to get these Independent MLAs elected into the legislature,” she said, noting a strong group could play a power-broker role if a minority government is elected. “Once we’re there then we’re all going to come together and we’re going to figure out, is there something left in BC United, BC Liberals that we can resurrect, or do we need to start a new party that’s in the centre?”

She said there’s a big gap left in the political spectrum in the province.

“So, we just have to do it in a mindful way, to make sure it’s representing the broadest base of people in B.C.”

Among the supporters at Kirkpatrick’s announcement Monday was former longtime MLA Ralph Sultan, who held West Vancouver-Capilano for almost two decades before retiring in 2020.

The Metro Vancouver riding has been a stronghold for the BC Liberals — the former BC United — since its formation in 1991, with more than half of the votes going to the centre-right party in every contest.

However, Kirkpatrick’s winning margin of 53.6 per cent to the NDP’s 30.1 per cent and the Green’s 15.4 per cent in the 2020 election shows a rising trend for left-leaning voters in the district.

Mike McDonald, chief strategy officer with Kirk and Co. Consulting, and a former campaign director for the BC Liberals and chief of staff under former Premier Christy Clark, said Independent candidates historically face an uphill battle and the biggest impact may be splitting votes in areas where the NDP could emerge victorious.

“It really comes down to, if the NDP are in a position to get 33 per cent of the vote, they might have a chance of winning,” McDonald said of the impact of an Independent vote-split with the Conservatives in certain ridings.

He said B.C. history shows it’s very hard for an Independent to win an election and has been done only a handful of times.

“So, the odds do not favour Independents winning the seats unless there is a very unique combination of circumstances, and more likely that they play a role as a spoiler, frankly.”

The B.C. Conservatives list West Vancouver School District Trustee Lynne Block as its candidate in West Vancouver-Capilano, while the BC NDP is represented by health care professional Sara Eftekhar.

Kirkpatrick said she is confident that her re-entry to the race will not result in a vote split that allows the NDP to win the seat because the party has always had a poor showing in the riding.

“So, even if there is competition between myself and the Conservative candidate, it is highly unlikely that anything would swing over to the NDP here. And I believe that I have the ability to actually attract those NDP voters to me, as well as the Conservatives and Liberals who are feeling just lost right now.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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