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US economy adds 467,000 jobs in January, calming Omicron fears – Al Jazeera English

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The United States economy added a better-than-expected 467,000 jobs last month, despite a wave of workers calling in sick as Omicron infections peaked.

Sometimes economic forecasters are too glum for their own good. That sure was the case on Friday with the release of the closely watched monthly US jobs report.

The United States economy added a robust 467,000 jobs in January, the US Department of Labor said on Friday. That was far, far better than most analysts were expecting and quells fears that the fast-spreading Omicron variant of COVID-19 temporarily dented the labour market recovery in the world’s largest economy.

“The labor market started the year off on a stronger-than-expected note defying expectations that the rapid spread of Omicron would lead to a temporary pullback,” said Oxford Economics chief US economist Kathy Bostjancic in a note to clients.

The US jobs market also closed out 2021 on a stronger footing than first thought. Jobs creation for November and December last year were revised up by a combined 709,000.

The nation’s unemployment rate edged up slightly in January to 4 percent after falling to 3.9 percent in December. But it’s not as bad as it seems at first glance because the number of people either working or actively looking for a job – a metric called the labour force participation rate – increased to 62.2 percent, the highest level since the coronavirus pandemic struck in March 2020.

The bump suggests that workers are moving off the sidelines – a development that is likely to cheer business owners who are struggling to fill a near-record number of job openings and have been sweetening benefits and pay packages to lure scarce job seekers.

That enhanced worker bargaining power was on display in average hourly earnings, which climbed 5.7 percent in December compared to the same period a year ago.

But as earnings go up, it further stokes inflation, which is also being fed by ongoing supply-chain disruptions and shortages of raw materials. That double whammy increases input costs for businesses, and they are increasingly passing on at least a portion of that financial burden to consumers.

That’s why the January jobs report falls at a critical juncture in the nation’s economic recovery.

US inflation is running at its hottest level in nearly 40 years and those higher prices erode purchasing power – undercutting the windfall from fatter paycheques.

Soaring costs for essentials like food, gasoline, and rent are also especially hard on low-income households that are forced to shell out a larger share of their financial resources to cover those basic needs.

Finally, too much inflation is bad for consumer confidence, which is bad for the economy. Because when consumers don’t feel good about their financial fortunes and prospects, it saps their spending mojo – and consumer spending drives some two-thirds of US economic growth.

Cue the Fed

For most of the recovery, the steward of the US economy, the Federal Reserve, has kept interest rates low to encourage jobs creation.

But late last year, with job openings abounding and inflation soaring, the Fed signalled a hard pivot away from job-boosting easy money policies and towards raising borrowing costs to keep a lid on rising prices.

Fed chief Jerome Powell said in January that the Fed will likely start raising interest rates in March. What’s more – he said that there is “quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labour market”.

The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve maximum employment while keeping inflation under control. And right now inflation is running far above the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent.

The Fed insists there are no signs yet of a dreaded “wage-price spiral” – that’s when workers keep asking for a raise to keep up with inflation, feeding consumer demand for goods and services, which raises prices further.

If labour force participation continues to increase, it should help calm wage pressures. And Fed policymakers still think inflation will start to moderate later this year.

But the January jobs report is bound to fuel mounting speculation that the Fed could hike rates by as much as half a percentage point in March, or signal a more aggressive tightening cycle ahead.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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