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Could The Iran Nuclear Deal Bring Oil Back Down – OilPrice.com

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Could The Iran Nuclear Deal Bring Oil Back Down? | OilPrice.com


Osama Rizvi

Osama Rizvi

Osama Rizvi is an economic and global oil market analyst who brings in a holistic point of view connecting geopolitics, economy and politics. He has…

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  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday morning sent oil prices beyond $100 for the first time since 2014 as supply fears gripped an already bullish market.
  • In an extremely tight oil market with low spare capacity and high geopolitical risk, a successful Iran nuclear deal is the only event that could bring oil prices back down.
  • While an Iran nuclear deal does appear to be within reach, even that will struggle to bring prices down if the Russia and Ukraine crisis continues to escalate.

Nuclear

On Thursday morning, the 24th of February 2022, Putin gave a short speech in which he ordered a “special military operation” in the eastern region of Ukraine. This came a day after he delivered an aggressive speech, denying Ukraine its sovereignty and recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, situated on the eastern side of Ukraine. At the time of writing, there are missiles being fired and reports are coming that troops are nearing Kyiv, the capital. In response to this invasion, oil prices breached $100 for the first time since 2014. Given the condition of the overall global economy, with rampant inflation and impending interest rate hikes, there seems to be only one potential bearish factor in today’s markets. The restoration of the Iranian Nuclear Deal is the only event that could significantly cool down crude markets.

Ukraine

If the current conditions persist, there really is no limit to how high oil prices could rise. Even claims about $150 oil, which seemed unrealistic only a few days ago, have started to look possible after today. The risk and fear premium is at its peak, as the shadow of a full-blown war looms over markets. There are two potential scenarios here for the Ukraine crisis and oil prices.

One scenario involves a continued assault on Ukraine by Russia sparking a string of sanctions and reactions. In this scenario, oil prices could rise to $150 or higher. At that point, even a flurry of bearish events would struggle to bring oil back below $100 any time soon. In the second scenario, tensions between Russia and Ukraine would diffuse and a diplomatic solution would be reached. This second scenario seems highly unlikely given the recent escalation, but there is a chance that Putin has limited and specific goals in mind. If the second scenario does come to pass, there is only one event that could truly drag oil prices lower.

A successfully negotiated Iran nuclear deal could bring millions of barrels of oil to the markets and alter the fundamentals. This has the potential to cause a significant correction in oil markets. According to a Bloomberg article, Iran has been moving millions of barrels of oil into tankers since December in preparation for a deal. According to Kpler, Iran may have 65 to 80 million barrels on offshore tankers, the majority of which is condensate. Iran’s daily production can reach up to 3.4 mbpd within the first 3 months of a successful deal and may hit 3.7 after 6 months. That is a significant supply disruption for oil markets.

Iran

Gasoline prices have touched $3.53 at pumps in the U.S., which is the highest since the summer of 2014. A prolonged spell of such elevated gasoline prices can eat away at Biden’s political capital and may spell trouble for his elections. The Biden administration had already publicly asked OPEC+ to increase output and bring prices down – but the cartel didn’t comply.

As such, the Iran nuclear deal remains the only viable option to bring oil prices down significantly. Even then, the effect of the deal will depend on both its timing and how the Ukraine crisis develops. The deal seems to be moving closer. Iran appears to free some prisoners and the U.S. to unfreeze Iranian funds, in South Korean banks. Iran’s exports have already increased, touching 1 mbpd first time in the past 3 years (most went to China). Before sanctions, Iran used to export around 2.5 mbpd. This may come back if the deal is successfully negotiated. Iran has recently called on its Western partners to make certain decisions and “finish the job”.

If the tensions between Russia and Ukraine settle down and the Iran nuclear deal is then successfully concluded, oil prices might yet drop back down. Ultimately, it all depends on just how far Russia is willing to go with its invasion of Ukraine. 

By Osama Rizvi for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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