Despite the hype that liberation day will dawn soon and cars will drive themselves, there’s no realistic chance that full-on self-driving will be available before 2030, and then only in a tiny number of top-of-the-range sedans and SUVs, according to consultancy Accenture
The world’s biggest auto manufacturers have poured billions of dollars into trying to perfect the technology. Despite impressive results, autonomous driving technology still can’t be relied on to handle really complex situations, and won’t any time soon.
Axel Schmidt, who leads Accenture’s automotive division globally, said in an interview autonomous vehicle (AV) technology had not advanced as quickly as expected.
“By now many expected that we’d see robotaxis driving around, but the problems are very complex. Driving on the highway when all the cars are going in the same direction is much easier than handling inner-city traffic. And much of the early research was done in California where there’s not much rain, fog or snow. In Europe’s all-weather conditions the problems were all a bit underestimated with things like snow blocking road markings,” Schmidt said.
He said as the technology moved from level 1 and 2 competence, which covers simpler tasks like emergency braking, approaching traffic warnings, steering assistance and early connectivity, this still relied on the driver taking full responsibility for the car’s actions. Higher levels though mean that responsibility reverts to the manufacturer. Level 5 assumes total control by the computer with no steering responsibility for humans.
That currently is a bridge too far for the manufacturers, not to mention lawyers.
In a report, Accenture said many traditional carmakers, as well as new entrants, had taken a bold position and projected fully self-driving cars by 2025. That’s not going to happen, unless the technology can mimic human common sense.
“We expect that, by 2030, 60% of all new cars will be equipped with Level 2 features. The flip side is current systems are not robust enough to navigate cars autonomously in real-world traffic – arguably due to missing common sense. For example, an algorithm cannot distinguish between a real traffic sign and one that’s – for us humans – obviously manipulated,” the report said.
“Driven by high costs, we expect that even the share of premium cars with Level 3 or 4 will only account for about 5% of the total market by 2030. Mission impossible: Level 5,” it said.
3D conceptual rendering, my own car design
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Pedro Pacheco, senior research director at Gartner
“We won’t see L5 before 2030. Undoubtedly, some companies will try to generate some hype and claim they have it. However, having a L5 system that can drive from door to door in the whole of Europe and North America at least, for at least 80% of all itineraries and with 0 accidents and disengagements is something that we definitely won’t see this decade,” Pacheco said.
“Now if you want to have a L5 driving on a straight line through the middle of the desert, that’s much easier,” Pacheco added.
As well as the huge complexity of the autonomous driving task, major manufacturers have found other important issues which required additional capital and attention, including the production hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic, sustainability, and government green deal requirements.
Accenture’s Schmidt said there are self-driving tasks which can be accomplished now. You could automate the movement of cars from production line to parking lot, or long-distance truck driving, parts of which could be easily automated.
But when autonomous driving is finally available, the industry faces some big decisions. Will the industry be driven by current manufacturers, mobility providers like UBER, new technology entrants like Apple
Schmidt said when Level 5 is achieved there will be big opportunities for businesses, driven by apps which can design travel plans to maximize mobility efficiency.
“With AV, we probably won’t see domestic flights as we see a seamless intermodular mobility system. For instance, I’d take a TGV (high speed train) from say Paris to Nice, drive to a town in the countryside in an AV. In the morning, I’d use an e scooter to get to the bakers. There would an app which would book these choices based on current traffic data, and my historic choice of travel, like Amazon today knows your buying habits,” he said.
Choose your car
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This new world of mobility is up for grabs, according to Schmidt.
“There will be a big shift in how to handle mobility in the future. Who will be the coordinator and owner, the auto manufacturers, big tech companies, infrastructure companies, fleet operators, or maybe partnerships?
Will any manufacturers fall by the wayside in this upheaval?
“The race is on and there will be new players like Apple. It will be a much harder race and probably not all will survive. Breakthroughs are possible. Look at how Tesla
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has shaken up the traditional 100-year old industry,” Schmidt said.
These experts were interviewed ahead of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain from February 29 through March 3.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
