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Western sanctions will sink Russian ruble, but unlikely to end war in Ukraine: experts – Global News

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The latest rounds of sanctions from Canada and other western nations will put “sustained” pressure on Russia’s tumbling currency in a move experts say is likely to hurt the country’s citizens but not yet hamper its war in Ukraine.

The Russian ruble fell as much as 30 per cent compared to the U.S. dollar on Monday morning, as the West launched new sanctions against the aggressor in eastern Europe and cut off ties of some Russian banks to the SWIFT banking system.

The ruble recovered somewhat before markets closed in Europe thanks to swift action from the Russian central bank (CBR), but fresh action from Canada and its allies to restrict the CBR’s access to international reserves will only put more pressure on the struggling currency.

In new sanctions announced Monday, western nations will restrict the Russian central bank from accessing billions in funds held in financial institutions outside the country.


Click to play video: 'Switzerland breaks neutral status, adopts all EU sanctions against Russia'



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Switzerland breaks neutral status, adopts all EU sanctions against Russia


Switzerland breaks neutral status, adopts all EU sanctions against Russia

The move will limit Russia’s capacity to buy up its own currency in an attempt to raise its value, constraining its ability to stem the ruble’s free-fall.

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, says the new sanctions put a “sustained downward pressure on the currency itself.”

“That is the biggest collapse that we’ve seen since the end of the Soviet Union. And the biggest drop that we’ve seen in a major currency since at least 1990,” Schamotta, whose company facilitates cross-border transactions, told Global News.

Read more:

Stocks swing, Russian ruble plunges as West ratchets up sanctions over Ukraine invasion

Prices to rise for Russian consumers

Russian consumers, who already lined up in droves outside ATMs in the country to withdraw cash on Monday, will be hit hard by the ruble’s decline, said Dane Rowlands, a conflict economics professor at Carleton University.

With Russia already facing a sharp decline on trade, consumers could soon be paying inflated prices on the scant goods that make their way into the country in the weeks to come, he says.

“I expect that a number of goods will disappear from Russian shelves, that the prices of those goods will go way up. The average Russian consumer is going to have a hard time being able to afford that,” he says.

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Rising interest rates worry Canadians already struggling to get by

But Rowlands cautions that attempting to hit the Russian war efforts — powered by a largely “home-grown military complex” — through the country’s financial system will probably not have much short-term success.

A prolonged conflict could mean Russia’s military reserves will eventually dwindle, with some need to restock supplies, Rowlands says, but the country’s internal war effort can likely be self-sustained in the near term.

“This is going to hurt Russian consumers. Is it going to hurt their war effort? My guess is no,” he says.

Russian oil and gas sanctions the last resort

A suffering populace could put internal “pressure” on Russian President Vladimir Putin to call off the assault on Ukraine, Schamotta says.

But both he and Rowlands believe there are other economic screws that western nations can still twist on Russia, though such action could have major implications for the Canadian economy and consumers.

Possible sanctions on Russian oil and gas are one of the West’s last resorts. Some 50 per cent of the country’s exports come from the energy sector, Schamotta says, and much of Europe remains heavily dependent on Russia to keep the lights on.

Cutting off the country’s energy exports would not only kneecap Russia’s economy but also deal a blow to European nations, such as Germany, which rely heavily on Russian natural gas.


Click to play video: 'EU must decrease its dependency on Russian oil and gas, Borrell says'



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EU must decrease its dependency on Russian oil and gas, Borrell says


EU must decrease its dependency on Russian oil and gas, Borrell says

“If they basically say, ‘we’re going to turn off the pipelines,’ that would be a huge blow to Russia because that’s the main source of income that they have. And it would take them a while to divert that to places like China or others who might buy it,” Rowlands says.

Even though Canada is a major energy producer in its own right, constraining the supply of oil is likely to put even more upward pressure on prices around the world.

Such a move could see Canadian producers earn more in the short term and in the long run, too, if the country is increasingly seen as a more secure source of energy. Though Rowlands says prices would also be passed on at the pumps, especially since the Canadian dollar has not kept pace with soaring oil prices.

Major movement on these sanctions would have to come from Europe and other nations more reliant on Russian energy, he adds, as Canada does not get significant oil imports from the region.

In 2019, 2.6 per cent of Canada’s crude oil imports were from Russia, according to Statistics Canada. That figure was even lower in 2020.

“It’s really not for Canada to pull that trigger,” he says.

But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday that the country would still take steps to limit its exposure to the Russia’s energy exports.

“Today, we are announcing our intention to ban all imports of crude oil from Russia, an industry from which President Putin and his oligarchs have hugely profited,” he said in a press conference.

Trudeau gave no immediate indication on the timeframe for such a ban, and did not indicate whether other western allies will follow suit.

“The big challenge here, and this is clearly what policymakers have been trying to do, is to apply these sanctions to put pressure on the Russian leadership without triggering really negative effects for the rest of the global economy,” says Schamotta.

“It’s a very delicate balancing act and we don’t know how it’s going to pan out just yet.”

— with files from Global News’s Anne Gaviola


Click to play video: 'Negotiations and more fighting on Day 6 of the Ukraine invasion'



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Negotiations and more fighting on Day 6 of the Ukraine invasion


Negotiations and more fighting on Day 6 of the Ukraine invasion

© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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