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Canada home prices to defy gravity this year, correction unlikely: Reuters poll

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Canada’s runaway house prices will keep growing at a robust pace this year, despite several rate rises expected from the central bank, according to a Reuters poll, which also showed the likelihood of a significant correction was low.

Home prices in Canada, one of the frothiest property markets in the world, have risen for more than a decade on near-zero interest rates. That, combined with C$100 billion government aid to the economy drove bumper activity in the market even during the pandemic.

The Canadian economy likely started 2022 on a strong footing, despite the impact of the Omicron variant and protests that shut key border crossings, and home prices soared nearly 21% from a year ago in January ahead of widespread expectations for interest rate rises starting Wednesday. [CA/POLL]

Ten of 13 respondents said the likelihood of a significant correction in the Canadian housing market this year was low, including two who said very low.

“Rampant home price increases are likely to extend through the early spring. Buyers are frantic given price growth trends and low inventory, while racing against the clock as lower rate commitments come to an end,” said Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.

Expectations of higher interest rates this year and next, a shortage of homes, a strong labour market and higher immigration were seen as likely drivers of housing market activity in 2022.

Canada plans to welcome more than 1.3 million immigrants over the next three years, according to the government’s 2022-24 Immigration Levels Plan released in February.

A Feb. 8-28 Reuters poll of property market analysts showed Canada average home prices would rise 9.2% this year, 1.5% next year and 2.0% in 2024.

That compared with a 5.0% rise in 2022, 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years predicted in December.

“The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, continuing to put upward pressure on prices,” wrote Christopher Alexander, president at RE/MAX Canada.

Graphic – Reuters Poll: Canada home prices outlook – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/lgpdwaomavo/Canada%20housing.PNG

House prices in Toronto and Vancouver were expected to rise 10.0% and 6.0% this year respectively, up from 5.2% and 5.0%predicted in December and while the upswing is good for sellers, it throws challenges for buyers – specially first-timers.

First-time home buyers looking to live in Canada’s biggest markets, like Vancouver or Toronto, find themselves pushed out to smaller regional areas due to record high prices.

All 15 real estate analysts who responded to another question said the housing market would not become a buyers’ market this year. The consensus showed it could happen next year or later but the conviction among respondents was not strong.

“The market is so sharply tilted in sellers’ favour at the moment that I think it will be balanced market, rather than a buyers’ market, as interest rates rise,” said Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

When asked how high would the overnight rate have to go this year to significantly slow Canadian housing market activity, the median showed 1.25%, a level the separate Reuters poll predicted it to reach later this year. Forecasts ranged between 1.00% to 3.50%.

(For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)

 

(Reporting and polling by Shrutee Sarkar and Anant Chandak; Editing by Ross Finley, Alexandra Hudson)

Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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