WASHINGTON (AP) — In a buoyant sign for the U.S. economy, businesses stepped up their hiring last month as omicron faded and more Americans ventured out to spend at restaurants, shops and hotels despite surging inflation.
Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs in February, the largest monthly total since July, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, from 4% in January, extending a sharp decline in joblessness to its lowest level since before the pandemic erupted two years ago.
Friday’s hiring figures were collected before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent oil prices jumping and has heightened risks and uncertainties for economies in Europe and the rest of the world.
Yet the February hiring data suggest that two years after COVID-19 sparked a nationwide shutdown and 22 million job losses, the disease is losing its grip on America’s economy. More people are taking jobs or searching for work — a trend that, if it endures, will help ease the labor shortages that have bedeviled employers for the past year.
In addition, fewer people are now working remotely because of the disease. A continuing flow of people back to offices could boost employment in urban downtowns. And the number of Americans who are delaying job hunts for fear of the disease fell sharply from January, when omicron was raging, to February.
“All signs are that the pandemic is easing its hold on jobs and the economy,” said Jane Oates, president of WorkingNation and a former Labor Department official. “Very strong numbers in very uncertain times.”
Other recent economic data also show the economy maintaining strength as new COVID infections have plummeted. Consumer spending has risen, spurred by higher wages and savings. Restaurant traffic has regained pre-pandemic levels, hotel reservations are up and far more Americans are flying than at the height of omicron.
Still, escalating costs for gasoline, wheat and metals such as aluminum, which are exported by both Ukraine and Russia, will likely accelerate inflation in the coming months. Higher prices and anxieties surrounding the war could slow hiring and growth later this year, though economists expect the consequences to be more severe in Europe than in the United States.
Inflation has already reached its highest level since 1982, with price spikes especially high for such necessities as food, gasoline and rent. In response, the Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates several times this year beginning later this month. Those increases will eventually mean higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses, including for homes, autos and credit cards.
Chair Jerome Powell said this week he plans to propose that the Fed raise its benchmark short-term rate by a quarter-point when it meets in about two weeks. Powell has acknowledged that high inflation has proved more persistent and has spread more broadly than he and many economists had expected.
One figure in Friday’s report could provide reassurance for the Fed’s policymakers as they assess inflation pressures: Average hourly pay barely grew in February. Higher wages, while good for workers, often lead companies to raise prices to cover their higher labor costs and thereby further heighten inflation.
But that slowdown might not last if inflation worsens. Some staffing agencies are seeing a shift in what is driving higher pay. Previously, it was companies’ need to fill jobs. Now, some workers are saying they need raises to cover rising costs.
Michelle Reisdorf, a district director at recruiter Robert Half in Chicago, who fills permanent and temporary jobs in accounting, human resources and other professional jobs, said workers are starting to cite higher gas costs when seeking a raise, particularly if they drive to offices.
“If they know they are going to have to go onsite five days a week, they are definitely asking for more money,” she said.
The strong hiring in February occurred across most of the economy, with restaurants, bars and hotels adding 79,000 jobs, construction 60,000 and transportation and warehousing 48,000. Though the economy still has 2.1 million fewer jobs than it did before the pandemic struck, the gap is closely fast.
Data from the restaurant reservation software provider OpenTable showed that seated diners surpassed pre-pandemic levels late last month. And figures from the Transportation Security Administration reflected a sharp increase in the number of people willing to take airplane flights.
As mask mandates have ended and omicron cases have declined, customer visits have more than doubled at p.volve, an online fitness company that provides at-home workouts and has three gyms in New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, said Julie Cartwright, the company’s president.
The company, which employs about 75, has four job openings in data analysis, engineering and marketing. The vast majority of its customers do the company’s proprietary workouts at home. Over the past four months, Cartwright has hired 15 people, 10 of whom replaced workers who had quit. Quitting has reached record levels nationally as employers in need of hires have poached workers from other companies.
In response, Cartwright said, p.volve has provided pay raises and more leadership opportunities to try to retain its employees. The company is based in New York City but has also hired remotely since the pandemic hit, significantly expanding its talent pool.
“That’s a massive advantage, now that we can hire really anyone, anywhere,” she said.
After months of concerns about labor shortages holding back businesses, more Americans started job searches in February for the second straight month. The proportion of Americans either working or looking for a job rose to 62.3%, up from 61.5% a year ago, though it remains below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%.
The number of people who said they avoided job hunting because they were concerned about COVID fell to 1.2 million in February, down 600,000 from January, when omicron was raging.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at tax advisory firm EY-Parthenon, suggested that the increase in the number of Americans looking for a job last month was “the most important number” in the report.
“That will reduce wage growth pressures and put us on a more sustainable trajectory for the economy,” Daco said.
Among the recent new job seekers was Ryan Gerard, who had quit a sales job last July because he felt burned out by the emails and texts he received at all hours and because his employer wasn’t fully comfortable with remote work during COVID.
Gerard, 30, who lives near Cleveland, took a break for several months, then began looking for work again in November. In January, he landed a sales and account management job at Sixth City Marketing. Gerard said he never worried that he wouldn’t be able to find work. And his current position, he said, provides a much better work-life balance.
“I wanted to reassess where I was,” he said. “There was no shortage of jobs. I got interviews at a variety of places.”
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This story has been corrected to show that Ryan Gerard works at Sixth City Marketing, not Sixth City Communications.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
