Politics

The gender divide in British politics – UK in a Changing Europe

Published

3 years ago

March 8, 2022

Is there evidence of a growing gender divide?

The 2019 general election saw the largest difference between men and women in support for the two main parties for more than fifty years. Women were nearly eight percentage points more supportive of Labour than men, and men were around five percentage points more supportive of the Conservatives than women.

Figure 1 shows the gradual realignment of this gender gap over time, illustrating that these gaps were not only large in 2017 and 2019, but they had reversed in direction compared to most of the post-war period, with women now more likely to vote Labour and men now more likely to vote Conservative.

This shift in the gender vote gap has been particularly marked amongst younger age groups. In 2019, women under the age of 35 were 13 percentage points more supportive of Labour than men under 35, but there was very little difference in Labour support between men and women aged over 65. Similarly, women under the age of 35 were eight percentage points less likely to vote Conservative than younger men; women over 65 were four percentage points more likely to vote Conservative than older men.

The realignment of the ‘gender gap’ is closely entwined with two key political developments over the last decade: austerity and Brexit. The seeds were sown in the 2015 election, when younger women’s concerns over the cost of living, their household finances, and the NHS led them to vote Labour in higher numbers. Consequently, this was first election in the post-war period when women were (slightly) more supportive of Labour than men.

At the same time, despite the Conservatives’ pledge to hold a referendum on EU membership, UKIP gained ground amongst (older) men. Older women were less likely to support UKIP, and more likely to stick with the Conservatives, because they felt less strongly about the EU as an issue and because they held less favourable views of Nigel Farage.

The cost of living, economic and financial concerns again meant younger women were particularly supportive of Labour in 2017. By contrast, without the effect of UKIP, men were on average more supportive of the Conservatives. Political competition over austerity was therefore key to understanding the gender gaps in 2017. By 2019, however, Brexit was by far and away the most salient electoral issue, and this resulted in party support being even more divided by gender.

Younger women were particularly unlikely to support Brexit in the 2016 referendum. At the time of the 2019 election, women – especially younger women – were more supportive of a second referendum and less supportive of leaving the EU without a deal than younger men and older voters. These differences in attitudes towards Brexit were strongly associated with younger women again being more likely to vote Labour in 2019.

The realignment of the gender gap is thus related to political competition over economic concerns and Brexit. Importantly, three successive Conservative Party leaders (Cameron, May, and Johnson) have failed to persuade younger women in particular to support the party, indicating the gender gap goes beyond a ‘Boris Johnson’ effect.

How important is gender likely to be at the next election?

What does this mean for the next election? The age component of the new gender gap is important. In 2015, women under 35 were particularly supportive of Labour, but this reversed for older age groups. In 2017 and 2019, the gender gap in Labour support was present for all age groups under 60 and 70 respectively, although it was still much wider for those under 35. This suggests Labour is consolidating its support amongst women and is no longer appealing only to younger women.

This is likely because, although opposition to Brexit is strongest amongst younger women, women across all ages are more ambivalent towards Brexit than men. Current polling suggests that Labour continues to enjoy an advantage amongst women. At the time of writing, an average of the last five polls from YouGov give Labour a seven-point lead over the Conservatives among women, whereas men are more evenly split between the two main parties.

This does not necessarily suggest that Labour will continue with a strong advantage amongst women into the next election. The close association between recent gender gaps and the issues of austerity and Brexit raises questions about what might happen should these cease to be dominant election issues. The recent gaps appear highly context-specific, rooted in electoral competitions over salient issues on which men and women differ in their experiences and preferences.

However, if the next election is fought on questions surrounding pandemic response and recovery, and especially if there are meaningful differences between the parties on these issues, gender gaps in party support may well continue. Women tend to prioritise health as an issue to a greater extent than men. Although men have had higher mortality rates than women, women have been particularly vulnerable to some of the social and economic consequences of the pandemic.

Women are more likely to be employed in sectors that have been badly affected such as healthcare, education, and hospitality, to be furloughed, to work on insecure contracts (especially BAME women), and to take furlough or redundancy to meet childcare demands.

It is also notable that the gender pay gap increased in 2021 compared to 2020, although it remains smaller than in 2019.

These developments suggest that the female electorate – especially workforce-age and BME women, and mothers – could go into the next election feeling particularly economically vulnerable and concerned about their financial security, as they were in 2015 and 2017.

In this context, the emergence of a significant gender vote gap depends on whether the parties respond to these concerns in different ways. Given Labour has usually been more willing to make the spending commitments this requires, we might expect a ‘pandemic’ election to continue to consolidate the gendered voting patterns observed in 2017 and 2019.

By Rosalind Shorrocks, Lecturer in Politics at the University of Manchester. This piece was originally part of the report ‘British Politics after Brexit’.

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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