adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Real eState

Can We Untie Real Estate and Employment? – The Big Picture – Barry Ritholtz

Published

 on


I have been wondering lately what the ramifications of the past two years will be. I enjoy thinking about things like this; its especially fun when there is no consensus, and no one really has much of a clue about the future. This has been even more true than usual lately.

I don’t pretend to have answers, but I do have questions that raise interesting scenarios. The one I have been having the most fun with lately: How will residential real estate and migration of human capital (employees) alter the way people work, get hired, and live?

Just imaging different outcomes of what might happen can occasionally lead to insights. It’s a useful exercise, especially when we are in a period of great flux.

Consider the lessons learned during the lockdown period that began in March 2020 and sporadically ended over the next 18 months.

– Knowledge workers were very productive during WFH;
– Good Technology is essential;
– Corporate Culture can be challenging to maintain from a distance;
– Residential Real Estate is driven by multiple factors which rise and fall in importance at different times;
– Wages are relative to the local cost of living;
– Many firms have begun hiring in geographies outside of where their offices are physically located;
– We are still feeling the fallout of the Great Financial Crisis in residential real estate.

My frame of reference is my own circumstances.

Pre-pandemic, I was in the office four days a week but working from home on Fridays.1 Today I’m in the office once or twice a week (my train is still not on a normal schedule). Friends and colleagues’ work experience is across the spectrum: Some firms are mandating at least four days a week in the office (with a mandatory “Everybody comes in Wednesday!”); some are still full remote, while others are a hybrid. Once things get back to the way it was, I’ll be in the office two or three days a week.

Assuming it does return to normal. And therein lay the rub.

During the lockdown, we hired a number of staffers from all over the country. Some are nowhere near our HQ or remote offices. You live in a high-wage metropolitan region, but your staffers are not coming into the office, why not hire from less expensive parts of the country?

Perhaps this is merely a blip. Maybe once this is over and people are hungry for social interactions and human contact the world returns to the way it was circa 2019. If that’s the case then there are no serious issues with residential real estate or location of labor and migration.

But I have my doubts that this is going to be the outcome. It is simply too cost-efficient to source workers from less expensive locales. Note this began in the United States decades ago, with customer service (phone) workers who could be anywhere (including overseas).

Imagine this scenario:

Numerous companies, ranging from startups to smaller established firms to mid-sized companies to even larger publicly traded corporations, adopt this interstate labor arbitrage approach to hiring. Over time, the people who have to be physically in their offices are the most senior in the organizational chart. Much of the rest of that org chart was working in the same building but either commuting much longer or living in much smaller spaces or both.

Will that continue?

Consider the concentric rings of bedroom communities that surround metropolitan centers like Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle, etc. Commute times of 30, 60, 90, 120 minutes used to include a fairly linear increase in RRE costs per square foot contingent on the shorter the commuting distance was.

What happens to this model?

What happens to the supply of office space – do we have a massive urban glut?

What does that do to residential real estate in urban centers, and their surrounding bedroom communities?

Will we continue to have pricey shortages of real estate in cities?

Where will entry-level position workers find employment – in the more expensive urban areas or the less expensive suburban and rural areas? (Consider how rent-poor many of these workers were pre-pandemic).

How significant are these changes going to be? Is this a small trim adjustment, or is this a substantially remaking of the employment/real estate model of the entire 75-year post-war period?

I don’t have the answers to these questions, but I have been wrestling with how these may resolve. The impact is likely to be substantial regardless of which direction this goes…

Previously:
How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

How Much Have Americans Increased their Homes’ Values? (August 20, 2021)

How Expensive Are Houses? (August 16, 2021)

________

1. Our house is less than an hour commute to the city; I could have lived 30 minutes closer in a smaller home on less land for the same purchase price, or 30 to 60 minutes further out on even more land for less money.

If I had known I was only going in 2 days a week, how might that have impacted our thinking on location?

Print Friendly, PDF & EmailPrint Friendly, PDF & Email

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

 on

 

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending