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Changes to foreign buyers tax unlikely to quell Ontario market, real estate experts say – Global News

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Real estate experts say Ontario’s decision to increase and expand its foreign buyers tax won’t do much to cool the province’s hot real estate market.

Moving the non-resident speculation tax to 20 per cent from 15 per cent and applying it beyond the Greater Golden Horseshoe is the centrepiece of the More Homes for Everyone Act, which the province announced Wednesday.

The changes to the tax targeting non-resident homebuyers were coupled with the closure of a loophole that gave rebates to foreign students completing full-time studies for at least two years after a home purchase and foreign nationals who continuously worked full-time in Ontario for a year after buying.

Read more:

Ontario raises foreign homebuyer tax, makes it provincewide

The bill will also commit the province to working with municipalities on addressing speculation, dedicate $19 million over three years to reducing backlogs at the Ontario Land Tribunal and Landlord and Tenant Board and accelerate planning processes for cities.

But don’t expect the cornerstone — the increased non-resident speculation tax that came into effect Wednesday — to send housing prices plummeting or quell the bidding wars that have become the norm in the market, experts say.

“Everyone in the industry, myself included, are well aware that this isn’t actually going to affect the market,” said Michelle Gilbert, a Toronto broker with Sage Real Estate Ltd.

Gilbert says Statistics Canada data showed non-residents owned only about 3.4 per cent of all residential properties in Toronto five years ago, so the measure affects a small slice of buyers.

Read more:

Ontario introduces new legislation to increase housing supply in province

Foreign buyers may have initially been deterred from buying properties in the region when the tax was initially implemented in 2017, but their attitudes have since shifted, she said.

“Foreign investors quickly realized even with a dip our market is still a safe haven for their money and they already look at that tax as just the cost of doing business,” she said.

“So adding this additional five per cent, I don’t foresee it affecting the amount of foreign buyers that do invest in let’s say the Greater Toronto Area.”

While BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter said he’ll keep an open mind on the impacts of the tax hike, right now he’s “not convinced it’s going to have a big effect.”

He believes non-resident investors were a big source of the heat Toronto and Vancouver’s market saw in 2016 and 2017, around the time foreign buyer taxes were implemented in both provinces.

Policy-makers had a “tremendous under-appreciation” for how these investors’ were fuelling heated conditions, he said.

However, he believes the dominant force in Ontario’s current market is intense inflationary pressures, which also pushed up prices in rural and suburban markets over the last two years.

But he’s not downplaying the impact these buyers can have.

“Many point to the supposedly low share of the market that such investors hold, but even a small increase in demand can have an outsized effect because there’s no selling on the other side,” he said.

“These are just pure new buyers and they tend to be pretty aggressive in terms of what they’ll pay, and from what I’ve seen, they do tend to drive up the price in neighbourhoods and markets that they care to invest in.”


Click to play video: 'Peterborough house prices reach a new record'



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Peterborough house prices reach a new record


Peterborough house prices reach a new record – Feb 18, 2022

Porter and Gilbert say there are many measures the province could implement to cool the market, especially the GTA, where the average selling price for a home surpassed $1.3 million in February, up from just above $1 million last February.

Supply is often heralded as the most instrumental measure in taking the heat of markets, but Porter warns it’s a “slow moving beast” that will take “years, not months” to weigh on the market.

“The only thing that’s very straightforward and can be implemented relatively quickly is higher interest rates,” he said. “Unfortunately, it has massive spillover implications for all kinds of other areas of the economy.”

The province could also implement a broader speculation tax, but Porter said, “that’s pretty harsh medicine and it doesn’t seem like they want to go down that route.”

© 2022 The Canadian Press

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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