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Economy

Opinion: Is carbon the 'new' staple in our contemporary economy? – Coast Reporter

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Harold Innis is no longer a household name in Canada, but perhaps he ought to be.

As Canada progresses forward into the complexities of transitioning energy systems and times, it’s worth reflecting on what Innis might think about the state of Canada’s energy economy — particularly where it stands in a global context — and how we might think about evolving it.

Innis is a giant figure in Canada’s economic and political history. His staples theory profoundly helped Canadians define a sense of national identity as the country slowly weaned from the teat of colonial mothering nearly a century ago — as it developed its resources and established international markets for them.

With the tragedy of events unfolding in eastern Europe, once again the notion of Canada as an energy supplier beyond North America’s borders is finding traction in a way that foregrounds the country’s resource economy.

It’s worth dipping back into Canada’s economic and political history and with a dollop of Harold Innis, ponder the twin possibilities of carbon and energy transition thinking powered by people as the new staples of our resource economy.

Like all (economic) theories, Innis’s work on staples comes in and out of fashion. Its key propositions are mostly timeless (and sensible) and any contemporary utility derives from how effectively someone reinterprets and re-engages with them. Like most theoretical frameworks, staples thinking is layered, complicated, and contested but for people outside academic cloisters, it provided (and continues to provide) a common-sense way of thinking about how their lives were lived.

Innis, who died in 1952, saw staples (fish, fur, grains, lumber, etc.) as the commodities that shaped and defined early Canada — geographically, socially, and politically. No news there. The magic in his thinking was more nuanced, in that he employed theoretical frameworks less top down than bottom up in their orientation. His work on the fur trade was seminal and did much to affirm that Canada was more of a product of itself than an outpost of the Empire. He remained concerned, however, that Canada could become overly reliant on the staples themselves and fail to evolve economic utility beyond the provision of raw materials to others. Today, it’s easy to argue that to a degree this has happened — while pointing out plenty of examples where we have advanced well beyond that in terms of adding value.

But Innis never seemed to explicitly valorize individuals directly, even though he was thoroughly grounded in research programs that took him right into Canada’s wilderness and often into direct contact with doers. As such, he would almost certainly concur that you need to be resourceful to manage, sustain, diversify, and advance a resource economy — as well as transition it. Here’s the important thing: Innis also posited that staples opportunities mature and to keep the economy prospering, new markets and opportunities are required. 

Innis’s thinking blossomed in Canada at an important juncture in a young country’s history; Canada was seeking to define itself in non-colonial terms and his work contributed significantly to a Canadian sense of self. Arguably, we are at a not-dissimilar point now — in an energy market context significantly more global than Innis could have ever imagined.

Innis probably would have much to say about hydrocarbons as a contemporary staple. He would point to Canada’s market access debate and our need to move our hydrocarbons to tidewater and beyond as the natural evolution of a staples market. He would agree Asian and European markets are logical growth opportunities after decades of dependence on a single customer. He would well understand that when your biggest customer (the United States) becomes your biggest competitor, it’s time to move on and find another market — or another staple. 

He might also have suggested value-add thinking. In this case, intellectual value-add on top of molecular value-add.

In that case, why not both people and product?

So, here’s the new twist on Innis: Why not consider people and product as a form of joint staple and think creatively about another people-powered commodity produced by our resource heritage: carbon competency. 

Most Canadians are wont to believe Canada (Alberta) is a global bad boy when it comes to oil and gas development. Quite the opposite. Canadians are technology and innovation leaders. We are performers par excellence in regulatory matters. We’re also tenaciously tackling the complexities of emissions challenges. Any cursory examination of the emissions landscape reveals there’s a lot of good stuff going on.

We’re just poor at telling the story.

Take carbon management as just one example. We’re incredibly resourceful in matters carbon. There is so much at hand in advanced carbon research and innovation, building on foundations laid down years ago, that it’s difficult to track. It’s not a stretch to claim we’re something of world leaders in everything from carbon sequestration to an exciting future in next-gen (and non-combusted) materials.

But who knows?

Certainly not Joe Canadian, whose mind today is more filled with tripe by activists about how our resource economy is dragging Canada down than about how Canadian innovation talent is building it up. In the past, we were never very good externally as a sector about pairing the product with the way we produce that product.

It’s hard to know what Innis might have made of the ESG movement and its attendant impacts on socio-economic and socio-political thinking. It probably wouldn’t have surprised him and he might even have suggested ESG mastery is a sign of an advancing and evolving resource economy that knows how to imbue its staples with value.

Carbon (and its management competencies) could be the new staple of our resource economy — not just the atom and related molecules, in a manner of speaking, but the skills and talents of people curious about how to change its status from liability to asset. That seed of national pride Innis identified so many decades ago still exists within Canadians associated with energy production.

Innis might well agree (if we could somehow channel him) that it might even be a good thing for the federal and provincial governments to push Canada’s carbon management competencies into new markets (think European Union) long before the hydrocarbons themselves actually arrive to demonstrate how we balance responsible resourcefulness with the resource itself.

Good resource economies are powered by resourceful people — people who can hold in dual balance both environmental and economic performance.

Bill Whitelaw is Managing Director, Strategy & Business Development at geoLOGIC Systems Ltd. & JWN Energy. Bill is a director on many industry sector boards including the Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources and the Canadian Petroleum Hall of Fame. He speaks frequently on the subjects of social licence, innovation and technology, and energy supply networks.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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