A truck driver wearing a protective mask walks past containers at Yangshan port in Shanghai, China. Shanghai is under an intense COVID lockdown, as are an estimated 87 of the 100 largest cities in China.
Photo: Yves Dean/Getty Images
President Xi Jinping’s policy of zero tolerance toward COVID kept cases down during the first two years of the pandemic. But the infectiousness of the omicron variant is making it much harder to pull off.
It’s estimated that 87 of the 100 largest cities in China are now under some kind of restricted movement. Shanghai is under an intense lockdown, severely impacting living conditions for its 25 million inhabitants.
This is starting to impact global financial markets and supply chains. BRINK spoke to David Dollar, an expert on the Chinese economy at Brookings, to assess the economic impact.
DOLLAR: It seems like the zero-tolerance policy is starting to have a negative effect on the Chinese economy. According to official data released last week, China’s economy expanded 4.8% in the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year. However, much of that growth was recorded in January and February only. There’s no question the Chinese economy has slowed down, and there are anecdotal reports about certain ports suffering big backlogs and cities that have shut down.
China’s a big country, so shutting down a couple of cities doesn’t necessarily have an overwhelming effect, but it is definitely going to be negative for China’s growth.
BRINK: Its impact will depend on how long this goes on — do you have any sense of whether the government is determined to stick to the policy?
DOLLAR: China has an important Communist Party congress in November, so I would be surprised if they changed policy before November. But President Xi has sent out a message to local officials to pay attention to growth, and there are examples of cities modifying their quarantine policies, for example, by moving from a three-week quarantine to one week. Or in Shenzhen, the factory that produces a lot of Apple products was allowed to keep operating. So I would say, you see some local flexibility, but they are basically sticking to their zero-tolerance policy.
BRINK: Are you seeing any sign of this rippling through global supply chains yet?
DOLLAR: The Ukraine [conflict] is having a big effect on the global economy, and the spread of COVID in China is an additional negative factor, but on a smaller scale, so far. However, the longer it goes on, the more it’s going to take away from China’s annual growth rate.
The financial markets hate the uncertainty around the Ukraine [conflict], the effect on the global economy, and what’s happening with China.
One thing about China, which we saw with the first wave of COVID, is if things shut down for a month or two, then they seem to work extra hard to recover. And that’s kind of a natural tendency, but China’s particularly good at it. Oftentimes, they get close to annual targets, they have a couple of bad months, and then they work super hard for a few months. But if the spread of cases continues throughout the year, then of course, you’re not going to be able to make up for this during 2022.
BRINK: I’ve seen some projection suggesting it could knock a point off the GDP growth. Do you think that is overly pessimistic?
DOLLAR: They set a target for the year of around 5.5% growth in GDP, and they made that decision before the Ukraine [conflict]. Frankly, even leaving aside COVID, that already seemed like a very ambitious target, given the challenges that they were already facing domestically with their real estate and the tech crackdown.
When you add in the Ukraine [conflict], the notion that COVID could take a point or more off of that 5.5 target seems realistic. The financial markets hate the uncertainty around the Ukraine [conflict], the effect on the global economy, and what’s happening with China. So it’s not surprising to see stock markets bouncing around a lot.
When it comes to Ukraine, China happens to be the poster child for a country that imports a lot of petroleum, natural gas and wheat. And the [conflict] has affected prices globally, so it doesn’t even matter where China is importing its oil and gas from — those prices have gone up very dramatically. That’s a big shock for the Chinese economy.
BRINK: How does this play with inflation if the Ukraine crisis drags on and there’s this continued zero COVID policy?
DOLLAR: Well, China has much lower consumer inflation than we do in the U.S., or even in Europe. And so, that actually puts them in a position where they can ease up their monetary policy, while we’re going to be tightening our monetary policy. So that gives them some room to stimulate the economy with both fiscal and monetary policies.
It’s a little bit of a mystery how their consumer pricing inflation has stayed so low. This latest spread of COVID has been going on long enough now that prices for a lot of services have gone down because people are not traveling or going to restaurants as much. So you’ve got price declines in services. And compared to Americans, people don’t drive nearly as much, so high gas prices don’t have as much effect on household budgets. So their inflation is quite modest and they’ve got room to stimulate.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
