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Continuity and change in South Korean politics – East Asia Forum

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Author: Jong Eun Lee, American University

On 9 March 2022, South Korea held a closely contested presidential election after months of volatile, acrimonious campaigns. Conservative People Power Party (PPP) candidate Yoon Suk-yeol was announced the winner with 48.56 per cent of the vote. Ruling Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung was just 0.73 per cent behind, the closest margin ever in South Korean history.

South Korea's president-elect takes selfies with South Korean soldiers during his visit to US Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, 7 April 2022. (U.S. Forces Korea/Yonhap via Reuters Connect)

In December 2016, former president Park Geun-hye was impeached after the nationwide protests against her political scandals. In the subsequent presidential election, the ruling party suffered a defeat, politically distanced itself from Park and renamed itself the PPP. The newly elected president from the opposition Democratic Party, Moon Jae-in, pledged to end political corruption.

The past five years were tumultuous for South Korean politics. Seoul witnessed summits between the heads of states of two Koreas and the United States. The Democratic Party achieved landslide victories in local and legislative elections. The government was initially praised for its management of COVID-19, dubbed ‘K-Quarantine’, but later faced domestic criticism for the increasing socioeconomic costs of its quarantine measures.

These experiences contributed to the competitive, dynamic presidential election. While supporters of the ruling party viewed the election as an opportunity to continue the ‘candlelight revolution’, the opposition sought to hold accountable the ‘populist, hypocritical’ government and restore ‘fairness and common sense’ in politics. President-elect Yoon is a former prosecutor general who investigated corruption allegations against the Moon administration. Lee is former governor of Gyeonggi province with a reputation as an economic populist. Together, they embodied the contrasting political aspirations of a divided South Korean electorate.

While voter turnout was roughly the same as in 2017 — about 77 per cent — all major candidates faced high disapproval ratings throughout the campaign. Despite concerns that the high unfavorability ratings of two major candidates could depress the turnout, South Korean voters continue to be engaged in political participation.

Due to the legacy of the past military dictatorships, politics have traditionally been divided along regions — conservative parties dominant in the southeast Kyongsang province, while the more progressive parties dominant in the southwest Joella province. While the two major parties won in their respective regional stronghold, Yoon’s frequent campaign visits to Jeolla province and his pledge to honour the region’s contribution to past democratisation have achieved small inroads into the democratic stronghold. Lee also increased democratic vote share in his hometown province of Kyongsang, creating cracks in the regional political alignment.

Nationwide, older South Koreans in their 60s and above tended to vote for Yoon, while middle-aged voters in their 40s and 50s tended to vote for Lee Jae-myung. Young voters in their 20s and 30s acted as a swing electorate. Many young, first-time voters view the ruling Democratic Party as the new establishment tarnished by corruption and were more receptive to some of the PPP’s policy proposals. This was particularly the case for men under 30 — nearly three in five voted for Yoon.

Young male voters have also espoused more hardline views toward North Korea and China and perceived the Moon administration’s foreign policy as overly conciliatory. They have also criticised the ruling Democratic Party for a ‘lack of fairness’ in employment, housing and gender-related policies. Young female voters, on the other hand, have maintained more liberal views toward foreign and social policies and, despite some aversion toward personal allegations surrounding Lee, ultimately voted for him.

But even among female voters in their 20s, Yoon achieved a higher percentage (33.8 per cent) than previous conservative candidates, including Park, the first woman elected president. Such results pose a warning for the Democratic Party that its traditional advantage among young voters has significantly weakened.

South Korea remains a largely two-party political system closely divided between the PPP and the Democratic Party. Minor candidates such as the Justice Party’s Sim Sang-jung and the People Party’s Ahn Cheol-soo barely registered. In fact, Ahn gave up days before the election and endorsed Yoon. While the PPP won the presidency, the Democratic Party holds a large majority in the National Assembly thanks to its victory in the previous legislative election.

South Korea will face a divided government where the two major parties struggle to achieve bipartisan cooperation. While resuming many conservative economic and security policies, the incoming Yoon administration, which take office on 10 May, could prove successful in overcoming political divides by distinguishing itself from past conservative governments administrations. To expand support in traditionally Democratic areas and demographics, Yoon may embrace a ‘new conservative’ agenda that includes policies toward balanced regional development and ‘fair opportunities’ for the youth in employment and housing.

At the same time, Yoon could struggle to bridge the cultural differences between the PPP’s older, more traditional base and the new younger supporters. As South Korea’s two major political parties vie for support among young swing voters, both will face challenges in addressing different perceptions of ‘fairness’ between younger male and female voters to avoid alienating one group at the expense of the other.

Jong Eun Lee is a PhD Candidate and Adjunct Instructor at the School of International Service, American University.

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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