adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

Typical mortgage payment could be 30% higher in 5 years, Bank of Canada warns – CBC News

Published

 on


High house prices and debt loads associated with them are a major vulnerability to Canada’s economy, the Bank of Canada said Thursday, warning buyers who bought during the pandemic that the impact of even slightly higher mortgage rates could be dramatic.

In its Financial System Review, the central bank said that while the country’s financial system is strong and weathered the pandemic well, the economy remains vulnerable because of elevated debt levels tied to the country’s increasingly expensive housing market.

“Even as the average household is in better financial shape, more Canadians have stretched to buy a house during the pandemic,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday. “And these households are more exposed to higher interest rates and the potential for housing prices to decline.”

The bank said that assessing risks related to high household debt levels has become more complex, but overall “the vulnerability has increased.”

Roughly two thirds of Canadians are home owners, and about half of them own their homes outright while the remaining have some sort of mortgage debt attached to it.

Raising lending rates slowed housing market

Home prices increased by about 50 per cent, on average, during the pandemic, as low rates allowed buyers to qualify for larger loans while still keeping the ongoing payments relatively affordable.

Much of those inflated house prices have been built on a foundation of debt. Almost one in five Canadian households are now considered “highly indebted,” which means their debt to income ratio is 350 per cent or more, the bank says.

Prior to the pandemic, only one in every six were that much in debt. Barely 20 years ago, in 1999, only one out of every 14 households had that much debt.

“Those numbers mean that each rate hike will inflict more pain on the economy than it would have in the past,” said Desjardins economist Royce Mendes.

WATCH | Why Canada’s economy needs higher interest rates:

Bank of Canada explains why we need higher rates

2 hours ago

Duration 0:34

Central bank governor Tiff Macklem says the economy needs higher interest rates to bring down inflation, despite the potential pain that higher rates may bring to the housing market.

And those rate hikes have already started. After slashing its benchmark interest rate at the outset of the pandemic, in March of 2022 the bank began to raise its benchmark lending rate from 0.25 per cent at the start of the year to 1.5 per cent today, and the impact on the housing market has been almost immediate, with sales volumes slowing, along with average selling prices.

“Given the unsustainable strength of housing activity, moderation in housing would be healthy,” Macklem said. “But high household debt and elevated house prices are vulnerabilities.”

As part of its analysis of how resilient the financial system is in the face of various shocks, the bank examined what the impact of higher rates and lower selling prices might look like.

Mortgage costs could go up 30%

As part of that, the bank crunched the numbers on what might happen to the mortgages of recent home owners when their loans come up for renewal in five years.

The bank makes the assumption that in 2025 and 2026, variable rate loans will cost 4.4 per cent in five years, while fixed rate loans will be slightly higher at 4.5 per cent.

Both scenarios are roughly two percentage points higher than what’s available on the market today.

Under that scenario, the 1.4 million Canadians who got a mortgage in 2020 or 2021 would see their median monthly cost go up by $420, or 30 per cent upon renewal.

The impact on fixed-rate borrowers would be slightly less, as they’d see their payments go from $1,260 on average when they first got their loan, to $1,560 a month at renewal, for an increase of 24 per cent.

But variable rate borrowers are even more vulnerable, under the bank’s thought exercise, as their typical monthly payments go from $1,650 a month when they got their loan to $2,370 when they renew. That’s an increase of 44 per cent.

“If those in highly indebted households lose their jobs, they would likely need to reduce their spending sharply to continue servicing their mortgage,” Macklem said.

“This is not what we expect to happen … But it is a vulnerability to watch closely and manage carefully,” Macklem said.

Other risks beyond housing

Vulnerability to the housing market was only one portion of the Financial System Review, which is the bank’s broad assessment of the health of the economy and its ability to withstand various shocks.

Some of the other vulnerabilities cited include cyber threats given the interconnected nature of the financial system and the fragile liquidity in fixed-income markets.

The bank also warned about the growth of cryptocurrencies and their volatility.

“Like other speculative assets, cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to large and sudden price declines. And recently, some stablecoins have failed to deliver on their promise of stability,” Deputy Governor Carolyn Roger said.

The bank also says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further complicated the transition to a low-carbon economy and assets exposed to the fossil-fuel sector, such as those found in the pensions and retirement savings of many Canadians, are in greater danger of being worth significantly less than anticipated.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

Published

 on

 

Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

Published

 on

 

CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

Published

 on

 

BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending