As health authorities work to gather information about the new coronavirus and the illness it causes, one of the questions they are trying to answer is how long the current outbreak will last.
The disease caused by the virus has been formally named COVID-19. It was first detected in China in December. In the months since it has infected more than 44,000 people globally and has killed more than 1,100.
While the scramble to stop the spread of the disease continues, some health officials have begun to share predictions on when the spread of the virus could slow.
In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who garnered celebrity for combating the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the peak of the virus should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease.
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Zhong said he based his forecast on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action.
“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he told Reuters.
2:26 Novel coronavirus: Virus declared “imminent threat” in U.K.
Novel coronavirus: Virus declared “imminent threat” in U.K.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump shared the same prediction, claiming without evidence that the outbreak could end by April.
“You know a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat, as the heat comes in,” he said. “Typically that will go away in April. We’re in great shape, though.”
2:26 Novel coronavirus: Virus declared “imminent threat” in U.K.
Novel coronavirus: Virus declared “imminent threat” in U.K.
Is the novel coronavirus a seasonal virus? Could the outbreak end in April?
Here’s what experts say:
What is a seasonal virus, and are coronaviruses seasonal?
Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases faculty member at the University of Toronto, said a “classic example” of a seasonal virus is influenza.
“Influenza, we know in Canada, has a seasonal component to it,” he said. “Every winter, we’re going to see a lot of influenza, and it comes about around November, December, [and] usually goes away or starts to peter out at the end of February.”
But Bogoch said that in the tropics, influenza doesn’t have as much seasonality.
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“In fact, you will see some degree of transmission all year round,” he explained.
0:46 Coronavirus outbreak: Hong Kong residents evacuated from residential block where two virus patients live
Coronavirus outbreak: Hong Kong residents evacuated from residential block where two virus patients live
When it comes to coronaviruses, Bogoch said some, but not all, have shown seasonality in the past.
“Some of the coronaviruses are more prone to transmission in cooler climates, and they’re just less likely to be transmitted during warmer months,” he said. “So there can be a seasonal component to some of the existing known coronaviruses that circulate, but it’s not entirely clear if those same rules will apply to this coronavirus.”
In an email to Global News, Dr. Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said four of the seven known coronaviruses cause “mild cold-like illnesses” but that they are “not truly seasonal viruses.”
Is the virus that causes COVID-19 a seasonal virus?
Bogoch said we don’t know enough about the “different characteristics” that contribute to this coronavirus’ transmission to “confidently predict” what’s going to happen.
If China is unable to contain the virus, Bogoch said there are two scenarios that could happen.
One possibility is that the novel coronavirus could integrate itself into one of the many other viruses that cause “coughs and colds,” becoming a “regularly circulating virus,” Bogoch said.
“Another possibility is that it has some seasonal components and it circulates analogous to the influenza virus,” he explained. “And there might be seasonal variation in the number of cases, and just like we have influenza season, we might see more of this novel coronavirus as well during those times.”
Overall, though, Bogoch said it’s “too early to know” if this virus will be seasonal or when the COVID-19 outbreak could end.
“I think the key thing to remember is these are all predictions and this is all from people extrapolating from other coronaviruses, and, you know, they’re not all created the same,” he said. “So it’s fine to make predictions, but I think we just have to also appreciate that there’s still a lot of uncertainty in these predictions.”
Kindrachuk, too, said it is “too early yet” to make any predictions based on the epidemiological data and case reports that have been presented.
“While there seems to be some discussion on peaking of COVID-19 cases, the alert levels are still high in regards to the virus and current case numbers,” he said. “There is still a massive concern regarding the potential for outbreaks of the virus in low- and middle-income countries, which would be difficult to contain given the economic and health-care limitations in many of those regions.”
He said he is “hesitant to put a lot of weight into these models that predict specific outcomes” as there are “often many additional variables that can impact the rates of disease transmission.”
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0:43 Coronavirus outbreak: 2nd plane carrying Canadian evacuees from Wuhan arrives at CFB Trenton
Coronavirus outbreak: 2nd plane carrying Canadian evacuees from Wuhan arrives at CFB Trenton
At a press conference on Tuesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) also painted a less optimistic picture of the COVID-19 outbreak.
WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the epidemic was “very much an emergency” for China but also “one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world.”
He said there was still a window of opportunity to shut down the outbreak.
Tedros said the virus should be regarded as akin to a terrorist attack.
“To be honest, a virus is more powerful (in) creating political, social and economic upheaval than any attack,” he said.
— With files from Reuters and the Associated Press
The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.
It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.
Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”
Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.
Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.
On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.
Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”
But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”
“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.
Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.
Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.
Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.
“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.
“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
