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Suburban real estate vulnerable if demand shifts post-pandemic, Bank of Canada warns – CBC News

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The gap between downtown real estate and houses in the suburbs narrowed significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, a development that may make markets outside big cities even more vulnerable to a slowdown.

That’s one of the main takeaways from a recently released analysis by the Bank of Canada that looked at housing valuations in 15 cities across the country, both before the pandemic and now.

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Historically, real estate in downtown cores tends to be more expensive because people want to live close to city services and amenities, and more vibrant job markets. “But this pattern may have shifted during the COVID‑19 pandemic,” Louis Morel, a policy adviser at the central bank, said in an analytical note released Monday.

The cost and inconvenience of commuting is typically a downside to suburban living, but the mass movement toward working from home during the pandemic flipped that old adage on its head, as downtown dwellers flocked en masse to the suburbs for more space.

Morel notes that many of the services that downtown residents enjoy about life in cities, such as concerts, restaurants and live entertainment, were shut down in one form or another.

“Between working or studying from home and the public health restrictions, people were spending more time at home than ever before,” he said. “A desire for more living space may have encouraged many Canadians to seek properties in the suburbs, where lots and houses are typically larger and more affordable.”

House prices took off just about everywhere during the pandemic, but the gains were especially big in the suburbs, which has made them less affordable today than they’ve ever been.

WATCH | How some suburbs are dealing with urban sprawl: 

Ontario’s Peel Region grapples with urban sprawl

1 month ago

Duration 4:31

In Peel Region, west of Toronto, officials have adopted a plan to expand urban development to accommodate a growing population, putting them at odds with advocates who argue for the need to conserve green spaces.

In 2016, a house in the suburbs 50 kilometres outside of downtown would typically be worth about 33 per cent less than a similar home in the city. Even in 2019, before the pandemic, that gap had narrowed to 26 per cent, but by the bank’s calculations, the average cost benefit had shrunk to just 10 per cent last year.

Randall Bartlett, an economist with Desjardins, described the phenomenon causing suburban house prices to boom succinctly: “Drive until you qualify.”

“The increase in remote work during the pandemic encouraged migration within and across provinces in a way which was unprecedented in history,” Bartlett said in a separate report last week. “Where families once left city centres in the pursuit of more space once kids came along, they could now move much further afield, including to rural communities and provinces with better affordability”


But that trend may already be starting to change, as many workplaces that had previously embraced working from home have returned to a hybrid working model that will see most staff return to the office at least part of the time.

The trend is already showing up in the housing market, as suburban markets that saw outsized gains during the pandemic are now seeing price declines, even as major city centres are mostly holding steady.

“It’s difficult to envision the housing markets of some smaller communities maintaining their unprecedented pandemic price gains as people return to in-person work on a more regular basis,” Bartlett said.

He says areas outside of Toronto, some of which saw average prices double during the pandemic, are most vulnerable to a slowdown.

“As we look ahead to how the national housing market correction will play out at the provincial level, in some ways it’s expected to be the inverse of what we saw during the pandemic.”

While the Bank of Canada stops short of speculating on the cause or making any predictions, it does warn that the narrowing price gap between the suburbs and downtowns could become a problem if preferences shift back toward how things used to be.

“If this preference shift is temporary, the proximity premium could return partly toward its pre-pandemic level,” the bank said.

“Such a shift in relative prices could be especially problematic if housing supply in more suburban areas were to respond strongly in anticipation of local demand continuing to increase.”

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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