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Opinion: Canada’s economy is decapitalizing – Financial Post

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The outlook for real growth in living standards in the coming months, years and decades is bleak

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Yet another alarming inflation number from Statistics Canada — 7.7 per cent from May to May — has underlined that something is seriously wrong with Canada’s economy. Prices are rising fast because spending is rising fast while production is not. The capacity of our economy to produce is flatlining because business investment has been so weak that the stock of productive capital per worker is falling. If we do not turn that around, the outlook for real growth in living standards in the coming months, years and decades is bleak.

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The basic problem is chronically low business investment, which has been the highlight — or lowlight — of Statistics Canada’s quarterly GDP reports for several years now. The cumulative effect of low rates of investment shows up in the national balance sheet accounts, which tally not flows but stocks: the assets and liabilities of households, businesses and governments. The balance sheet accounts make fewer headlines than the inflation and GDP reports, which is a shame because they tell us a lot about our economic prospects. Lately, they have been telling us that, thanks to business investment that is not even keeping up with depreciation, Canada’s net stock of capital is stagnating.

Economic growth has three main drivers: growth in the work force, growth in the capital stock, and growth of productivity. Growth in the capital stock and growth in productivity tend to run together. When businesses invest in new buildings, engineering structures, machinery and equipment, and intellectual property such as software, workers get better tools to work with, which enables them to produce more output and earnings per hour of work. The data show that our work force is still growing, though not as quickly as in previous decades. But our stock of non-residential structures, machinery, software and other tools per worker is shrinking.

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Compared to before the pandemic the real stock of business capital per worker is down three per cent (see nearby figure). The only type of business capital that has grown faster than the work force since the fourth quarter of 2019 is non-residential buildings. Capital per worker in the other major categories is down: engineering construction by two per cent, machinery and equipment by seven per cent, and intellectual property products — the category of investment that people thought COVID would spur, to the extent even of possibly triggering a new period of prosperity — by five per cent.

Extend the comparison further back and the numbers are downright alarming. Canada’s stock of business capital per worker was declining even before the pandemic. Total business capital per worker peaked in the fourth quarter of 2015. Since then, it is down five per cent. Each type of capital is also down per worker from its own peak around that time: non-residential buildings by one per cent, engineering construction per worker by three per cent, intellectual property products by 12 per cent and machinery and equipment by 17 per cent.

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These numbers normally rise over time. Such a multi-year decline in the tools available to the average member of Canada’s workforce is very likely unprecedented. The only historical period where consistent data (if it existed) might show something similar is the depression of the 1930s. From the perspective of Canadian workers, our economy is decapitalizing.

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One more release from Statistics Canada that should have made headlines but mainly didn’t was June’s report that labour productivity fell 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year — its seventh consecutive decline. No wonder growth in production is lagging growth in spending.

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The 2022 federal budget did note the dire implications of low business investment, citing projections that growth in living standards in Canada would rank dead last among OECD countries over the next 40 years. If anything, however, federal initiatives since then — higher taxes on politically vulnerable businesses and products, lower limits on deductibility of interest on business loans and confidence-sapping proposals for new regulation related to greenhouse gases, plastics and competition policy — will further discourage investment. Higher investment and robust economic growth seem to be low priorities in Ottawa these days.

We need changes in both tone and policy. Without them, the ominous decapitalization of Canada’s economy seems set to continue. Canadian workers need more capital — better tools — to raise their productivity and earnings. Otherwise, both the current expansion and our long-term living standards are in trouble.

Mawakina Bafale is a research assistant at the C. D. Howe Institute, where William Robson is CEO.

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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