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Blistering heat threatens a European economy that teeters on the brink – CNN

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London (CNN Business)Carsten Brzeski, a top economist at the Dutch Bank ING, can tick off a long list of factors that could collectively tip Europe’s economy into a recession.

There’s record inflation, made worse by Russia’s war in Ukraine. A weak euro is making it more expensive for businesses to import necessary goods. Italy, the bloc’s third-biggest economy, is embroiled in a political crisis following the ouster of the country’s prime minister.
But Brzeski is also keeping a close eye on extreme weather. A summer of dryness and blistering heat, exacerbated by climate change, is compounding headaches for businesses across Europe, weighing on economic output at a moment when every bit counts.
“This adds to the worries,” Brzeski said.
Water levels along Germany’s Rhine river, which is crucial for transporting chemicals, coal and grain, are so low that shipping has been disrupted, threatening to further scramble supply chains. Warm water temperatures in France are impeding the operation of some nuclear power plants amid other maintenance issues. And in northern Italy, farmers are muddling through the worst drought in 70 years, affecting the production of crops from soya to parmesan.
These climate-related issues could boost inflation as Europe struggles to cope with rising prices for food and fuel. Inflation for the 19 countries that use the euro hit an all-time high of 8.6% in June, forcing the European Central Bank to announce an aggressive intervention earlier this week.
But the ECB’s capacity to act could be limited as economic activity goes into reverse. The euro zone saw output shrink in July, according to data from S&P Global released Friday.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that means the euro zone economy is likely to contract between July and September. The fall and winter could prove even more challenging.

Drying Rhine hits supply chains

Extreme heat swept through the Northern Hemisphere over the past week, as record-breaking heat waves fanned wildfires in Spain and France, scorched the United States and triggered alerts in dozens of Chinese cities.
In Europe, the costs of a winter and spring with little rain and an intensely hot summer are piling up.
Water levels along the Rhine, which is Germany’s most important inland waterway for the transport of industrial goods, have fallen precipitously, disrupting the routes of shipping vessels. The Rhine is crucial for the movement of commodities including coal, which is in higher demand as Germany races to fill storage facilities with natural gas ahead of next winter.
Water flows at the Kaub gauge, located to the west of Frankfurt, are at 45% of average levels for this time of year, according to data from Germany’s Federal Institute of Hydrology. The agency said that has created “frequent obstructions” for ships. It doesn’t expect a recovery in water levels until late August.
Banks and the low water in the river Rhine seen during a heat wave on July 18, 2022 in Cologne, Germany.

Banks and the low water in the river Rhine seen during a heat wave on July 18, 2022 in Cologne, Germany.

Eric Heymann, an analyst at Germany’s Deutsche Bank Research, said that means not all ships can be loaded at full capacity. Some will decide it doesn’t make economic sense to complete certain trips if they have less cargo, according to the Federal Institute of Hydrology.
“It’s another disturbance for supply chains and a risk factor for power supply,” Heymann said.
Rhine concerns could weigh on Germany’s hugely important manufacturing sector, as when the river was too dry in 2018. Researchers at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that in a month with 30 days of low water, the country’s industrial output fell by about 1%.

Worrying consequences

Warmer water temperatures also make it more difficult for inland power plants to operate, since they rely on rivers for cooling. In France, the utility giant EDF said Friday that three reactors were running at lower capacity because of the higher temperatures of nearby rivers. Hydropower production in Europe is also expected to take a hit.
“The situation is very messy,” said Marco Alverà, who previously served as CEO of the Italian energy infrastructure company Snam.
He’s concerned that high power usage this summer, as households and businesses run their air conditioning, could eat into supplies that need to be preserved for the winter. Europe is currently stockpiling fuel in case Russia cuts off shipments of natural gas.
“I’m afraid there will be blackouts,” said Alverà, who now heads up TES, a green hydrogen company. “Even if Russia doesn’t cut supply, the market is very tight.”
A pump irrigating a corn field in Carmagnola, Italy, on Thursday, July 21. As drier-than-usual conditions and an early summer heat wave wreak havoc on agriculture and power supplies, the Italian government was forced on earlier in July to declare a state of emergency in five regions.

A pump irrigating a corn field in Carmagnola, Italy, on Thursday, July 21. As drier-than-usual conditions and an early summer heat wave wreak havoc on agriculture and power supplies, the Italian government was forced on earlier in July to declare a state of emergency in five regions.

The heat is also affecting Italy’s agricultural sector, where the 400-mile long River Po is experiencing record low water levels amid a devastating drought. The river cuts through Italy’s heartland, where 30% of its food is produced.
Between 1980 and 2020, countries in the European Economic Area are estimated to have lost between €450 billion ($460 billion) and €520 billion ($532 billion) due to weather and climate-related events. The financial toll could increase in the coming years.
Europe is emerging as a heatwave “hotspot,” according to new research. That will also have an impact on tourism to warmer parts of the continent, as well as worker productivity during particularly brutal periods, said Tom Burke, co-founder of the climate change think tank E3G.
“It’s going to add another stress,” he said, emphasizing that the cost of living will rise.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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