In elections and beyond, young Kenyans are an important political cohort. People between the ages of 18 and 35 make up about 30% of the population and nearly 40% of registered voters in the 2022 election.
According to World Bank estimates, almost 20% of young Kenyans were not employed or engaged in education as of 2019, a frustration that may drive their political views. The COVID-19 pandemic likely worsened the situation given lockdowns in 2020 and 2021.
None of the major political parties and alliances in the current election has put forward a clear vision for young people. Instead, the electorate has been treated to the traditional election campaign menu of implicit ethnic hostilities and the attendant fears of politically motivated violence.
In the country’s last election in 2017, then 23-year-old university student Shikoh Kihika started a hashtag, #TribelessYouth, in response to hateful, discriminatory messages she saw on social media. In 2017, over a quarter of Kenya’s population was on social media. It’s likely that fake news and other online messages designed to stoke fear and ethnic resentment contributed to the violence witnessed in that election.
Kihika’s call for unity among Kenyan youth was shared widely. However, a lasting change in behaviour is harder to detect.
Social media is again being used to spread divisive content in the run-up to the August 2022 election.
Some messages are designed to stoke fear and disrespect, creating a narrative that Kenyans need to defend their ethnic communities.
Do these tactics resonate with young Kenyans, or is there hope for a more “tribeless” political generation?
We decided to study the political attitudes of Kenyan students, particularly their views on the use of ethnicity in politics.
We found that most Kenyan students dislike ethnic-based politics in principle. However, the pressures of tribalism are difficult to ignore.
This suggests that the pattern of ethnic voting and violence in Kenya will be difficult to break, particularly while concerns about ethnic discrimination and exclusion persist.
The students we surveyed widely supported institutional reform aimed at increasing power sharing and inclusion in Kenya’s government, but these changes may be hard to achieve.
Our survey of University of Nairobi students to gauge their views on democracy and ethnicity was done in August 2018.
We surveyed 497 students between the ages of 18 and 35 less than a year after the 2017 general elections. It’s important to note that our results may have been coloured by the 2017 elections, and youth views may have changed since our survey. Also, the views of university students may differ from those of the youth as a whole.
Of the students we surveyed, 97% identified primarily as Kenyan, choosing their national identity over their ethnic one. One-third stated that ethnicity remained an important part of their daily life; 47% said it played a minor or no role.
Most (84%) agreed with a statement that tribal identities hurt Kenyan politics more than they helped. More than one student said:
Tribalism is killing us.
Many students felt, though, that ethnic discrimination negatively affected their lives and politics. Over a third (38%) stated that members of their group faced disadvantages because of their ethnicity.
That number rose to nearly half among students from the Luo ethnic group, who have been repeatedly denied access to the presidency. They are the base of support for presidential candidate Raila Odinga.
The number was greater than half for students from ethnic groups with historically even less political power, such as the Luhya, Kamba and Kisii.
Students’ perceptions of discrimination reflected the common belief in Kenya that members of the president’s ethnic group reap social and economic benefits. Many students stated that the Kikuyu and Kalenjin had advantages in society since, as one student put it, “the president and deputy come from there.”
As a result, Kenyan youth feel pressured to participate in ethnic politics despite their stated dislike of tribalism.
One student stated:
The big fear is that if we do not look out for ourselves, no one will look after us.
Accordingly, 40% of surveyed students agreed that having a co-ethnic in government was important to them.
Only 29%, however, admitted to listening to the political opinions of their ethnic or tribal leaders. This suggests that the youth accept that having a co-ethnic in power has important material benefits, while also acknowledging the dangerous effects of ethnic politics.
Thus, we have a mixed picture: Kenyan youth continue to engage in ethnic politics out of pragmatism. In their actions, they appear to be far from “tribeless”, despite widespread resentment of this system.
Moving beyond ethnic politics
How a country like Kenya can move past ethnic politics is something scholars and policy practitioners have long tried to understand. We don’t have many new answers from our research. However, Kenyan students echo many of the solutions proposed by scholars.
For example, students in our survey cited problems with Kenya’s electoral system, in which the “winner takes all”.
They suggested ways to increase power-sharing and inclusion, such as rotating positions between ethnic groups.
Kenyan university students have a sophisticated understanding of liberal democracy and the reforms necessary for it to overcome ethnic divisions. They also tend to support further constitutional reforms to create a less polarised system.
This explains why #TribelessYouth founder Kihika remains hopeful. She told us:
There is a huge number of youth candidates both on political party tickets and as independents. Additionally, young people in the civic space are on the frontline.
However, as shown by the recently failed and polarising move to change the Kenyan constitution – under the Building Bridges Initiative – agreeing on the details of reform is difficult. This is a result of conflict and distrust between self-interested political elites.
FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.
Born: March 1, 1954.
Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.
Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.
Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.
Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.
Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.
Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
GATINEAU, Que. – Treasury Board President Anita Anand will take on the additional role of transport minister this afternoon, after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet to run for the Quebec Liberal leadership.
A government source who was not authorized to speak publicly says Anand will be sworn in at a small ceremony at Rideau Hall.
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, but he is not expected to be at the ceremony because that is not an official role in cabinet.
Rodriguez announced this morning that he’s leaving cabinet and the federal Liberal caucus and will sit as an Independent member of Parliament until January.
That’s when the Quebec Liberal leadership race is set to officially begin.
Rodriguez says sitting as an Independent will allow him to focus on his own vision, but he plans to vote with the Liberals on a non-confidence motion next week.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has called an election for Oct. 21, signalling the beginning of a 33-day campaign expected to focus on pocketbook issues and the government’s provocative approach to gender identity policies.
The 70-year-old Progressive Conservative leader, who is seeking a third term in office, has attracted national attention by requiring teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred names and pronouns of young students.
More recently, however, the former Irving Oil executive has tried to win over inflation-weary voters by promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent if re-elected.
At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three and there was one Independent and four vacancies.
J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said the top three issues facing New Brunswickers are affordability, health care and education.
“Across many jurisdictions, affordability is the top concern — cost of living, housing prices, things like that,” he said.
Richard Saillant, an economist and former vice-president of Université de Moncton, said the Tories’ pledge to lower the HST represents a costly promise.
“I don’t think there’s that much room for that,” he said. “I’m not entirely clear that they can do so without producing a greater deficit.” Saillant also pointed to mounting pressures to invest more in health care, education and housing, all of which are facing increasing demands from a growing population.
Higgs’s main rivals are Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon. Both are focusing on economic and social issues.
Holt has promised to impose a rent cap and roll out a subsidized school food program. The Liberals also want to open at least 30 community health clinics over the next four years.
Coon has said a Green government would create an “electricity support program,” which would give families earning less than $70,000 annually about $25 per month to offset “unprecedented” rate increases.
Higgs first came to power in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — the first province to go to the polls after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a majority.
Since then, several well-known cabinet ministers and caucus members have stepped down after clashing with Higgs, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on policies that represent a hard shift to the right side of the political spectrum.
Lewis said the Progressive Conservatives are in the “midst of reinvention.”
“It appears he’s shaping the party now, really in the mould of his world views,” Lewis said. “Even though (Progressive Conservatives) have been down in the polls, I still think that they’re very competitive.”
Meanwhile, the legislature remained divided along linguistic lines. The Tories dominate in English-speaking ridings in central and southern parts of the province, while the Liberals held most French-speaking ridings in the north.
The drama within the party began in October 2022 when the province’s outspoken education minister, Dominic Cardy, resigned from cabinet, saying he could no longer tolerate the premier’s leadership style. In his resignation letter, Cardy cited controversial plans to reform French-language education. The government eventually stepped back those plans.
A series of resignations followed last year when the Higgs government announced changes to Policy 713, which now requires students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity to get their parents’ consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns — a reversal of the previous practice.
When several Tory lawmakers voted with the opposition to call for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from his cabinet. And a bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
