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Economy

Why China's economy is slowing down – Axios

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China is slowing fast, and the government is taking only modest steps to try to keep the earth’s second-largest economy from outright contraction.

Why it matters: While it lags behind the U.S. in size, China’s economy has been the largest source of growth for global GDP for much of the last two-plus decades — meaning it’s a global engine of corporate profitability, investment activity, and demand for commodities.

Driving the news: A raft of disappointing economic updates this week showed Chinese growth still sputtering on multiple fronts.

  • Its industrial sector slowed again. Industrial production rose just 3.8% in July compared to the previous year — and well short of expectations for 4.5%.
  • The crisis in China’s housing sector continues to hurt. Fixed investment — of which housing is an important component — was up just 5.7% in the first seven months of the year, compared to the same period in 2021. (In 2021, that figure was 10.3% higher year over year as of July.)
  • Consumers aren’t picking up the slack either. Retail sales in July were up a scant 2.7% year over year, far short of the 5% expectation.

Context: In the recent past, when faced with a slowdown, Chinese policymakers quickly turned to tried-and-true tools to attempt to give growth a kick in the pants. They included…

  • Pouring money into public infrastructure investment.
  • Engineering a borrowing boom to fuel domestic spending.
  • Delivering sharp interest rate cuts.

The intrigue: Despite China’s current economic blahs, there’s little indication that the government is decisively trying to prop growth up.

  • In past slowdowns, China’s broadest measure of all types of credit to the economy — known as “total social financing” — has surged, a sign the government was keen to boost debt to offset slumps.
  • A report on Friday showed total social financing far lower than expected, as the government seems disinclined to use a debt-driven boom as a source of growth.

Yes, but: The People’s Bank of China did cut interest rates by a tiny one-tenth of a percentage point on Monday — a move most analysts think is modest, and unlikely to reinvigorate economic activity.

The bottom line: The ruling Chinese Communist Party knows that the breakneck pace of Chinese economic growth that prevailed in past decades is unlikely to be matched. But unlike in past decades, they don’t seem particularly worried about it.

  • For the rest of the world, that may mean China will be less of a reliable engine of growth in the coming years.

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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