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Jackson Hole 2022: This is what to expect – Gary Wagner – Kitco NEWS

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On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming.

The widely anticipated event will give hints about upcoming Fed policy.

To help market participants, Powell will need to be clear about when the Fed will stop raising rates, said Gary Wagner, editor at TheGoldForecast.com.

Wagner spoke with David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News.

“The main thing [market participants] want to understand is at what point will the Federal Reserve stop raising rates… and more importantly, at what point will they start to unwind or, in other words, reduce the Fed Funds rate,” said Wagner.

The Fed has raised its rate by 225 basis points from January to July. The inflation rate in July was 8.5 percent, down from 9.1 percent in June.

Prior to the 2021 Jackson Hole speech, Wagner had forecasted higher inflation going into 2022, when the Fed still had not raised rates.

“If you listen to some of Chairman Powell’s statements, over the past couple of months, he has acknowledged that they should have acted sooner,” he said. “I really do believe that had they started to use their toolbox sooner, we wouldn’t be looking at inflation sitting at 8.5 percent today.”

The Fed’s Forecasting Errors

The Fed failed to forecast inflation accurately, and thus failed policy-wise, said Wagner.

“At the last Jackson Hole symposium… [The Fed] was still under the assumption that inflation would be transitory, that it would work itself out of the system naturally,” he said. “If they had begun with small rate hikes of 25 basis points a year earlier, they could have had a series of them that wouldn’t shake the economy as quickly and as hard as it has.”

At the same time, Wagner acknowledged that unforeseen events, beyond the Fed’s control, had also caused higher prices. He pointed to the war in Ukraine as a “wild card” that increased oil prices “like a second-stage booster on a rocket.” He also said that food and energy prices, in general, are unlikely to be affected by Fed policy.

Labor Markets

The unemployment rate in July was 3.5 percent, a low rate despite high inflation and supply chain shortages.

However, Wagner predicted that once the job market reaches a new equilibrium, there will be “one job for every two people looking for one,” although he did not see this happening soon.

Other job market indicators also look favorable, with wages and salaries up 5.3 percent from last year.

Some economists are concerned about rising wages during inflationary times, since they claim that higher wages can lead to more inflation, as businesses raise prices to offset greater costs.

Wagner said that although wages were not a “critical” factor in causing inflation, they were “a very important and large piece of the puzzle.”

“We got to where we are because of multiple events occurring,” he said. “And the fact of the matter is that higher wages definitely added to the inflationary pressures we see now.”

To find out Wagner’s forecast for the gold price, watch the video above.

Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV (https://twitter.com/davidlin_TV)

Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/KitcoNewsNOW)

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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