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The Economy Is Sluggish But Poised To Return To Positive Growth – Forbes

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Various forecasts for GDP growth in the September quarter hover between 1% to 3%, with the New York Fed an outlier at 3.8%. This is after the first quarter’s GDP fell 1.6% and the June quarter’s estimate currently at a negative 0.6%.

Trading Economics provides historical data and forecasts for more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, stock market indexes, government bond yields and commodity prices for 196 countries. The data is based on official sources, not third party data providers.

Its estimates for U.S. GDP growth are:

  • 3Q 2022: 2.8%
  • 4Q 2022: 2.5%
  • 1Q 2023: 2.0%
  • 2Q 2023: 1.8%

Real-time Index has been pretty flat over four months

Jefferies has developed a “U.S. Economic Activity Index” that attempts to understand how the economy is doing in real-time. It includes national transit use, auto congestion, flight activity, job listings, web traffic to unemployment portals, time clocked by hourly workers, foot traffic to consumer discretionary verticals, retail web traffic, restaurant bookings, mortgage applications, railroad traffic, steel production, and petroleum supply.

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As can be seen in the chart below the Index has ranged 95 to 100 since March and between 95 to 98 since late April. These readings tend to support a low economic growth rate.

Federal Reserve growth rates range from 0.9% to 3.8%

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes data and a graph that estimates the GDP growth rate of the current quarter. It also includes the top and bottom 10 forecasts from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts. Keep in mind the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projection is based on a formula from previous quarters’ GDP and the impact of Covid-19 could still be having a material influence on its estimate.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is showing the September quarter to have 1.6% growth compared to the Blue Chip consensus range of negative 0.3% to a positive 2.7%. The Blue Chip mid-point is 1.2%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has a Real GDP forecast that is updated once a week. Its current projection for the September quarter is 0.9%.

And lastly, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s most recent estimate is 3.8%.

Personal spending remains in positive territory

Tuan Nguyen, Economist at U.S. RSM, believes that, “While the economy is slowing down, it is still on strong footing given strong job gains, business investments, corporate profits and excess savings.” One of the reasons is due to personal spending still in positive territory, which is helped by falling energy prices.

What could swing September quarter’s GDP growth rate

There are four major segments to calculate GDP growth; Personal Consumption, Domestic Investment, Trade and Government spending. Two of the more volatile ones are Inventory changes under the Domestic Investment segment and Trade.

While these two can swing in any given quarter or for a few quarters, they come close to zeroing out over multiple quarters. Since 2011 to 2021 on a yearly basis Inventories have ranged from subtracting 0.55% to adding 0.35% to GDP growth. Trade has ranged from subtracting 1.4% to adding 0.22%.

Over the past four quarters:

Inventories

  • 3Q 2021: Added 2.2% to GDP’s growth rate
  • 4Q 2021: Added 5.32%
  • 1Q 2022: Subtracted 0.35%
  • 2Q 2022: Subtracted 1.83%
  • Four quarter total: Added 5.34% to GDP’s growth rate

Trade

  • 3Q 2021: Subtracted 1.26% to GDP’s growth rate
  • 4Q 2021: Subtracted 0.23%
  • 1Q 2022: Subtracted 3.23%
  • 2Q 2022: Added 1.42%
  • Four quarter total: Subtracted 3.3% to GDP’s growth rate

Therefore, these two segments could throw the total GDP growth rate into positive or negative territory so their impacts need to be taken into account.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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Economy

Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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