The world can change a lot in 20 years, and that reality is no different when we look at Canada in particular. On September 8, Statistics Canada released its projection for Canada’s demographic makeup in the year 2041.
These projections, which are rooted in data from 2016’s Census of Population, provide some key insights into where present figures and statistics project the country to be from a demographic standpoint in roughly 19 years.
A record-high proportion of immigrants in the Canadian population in 2041
Furthering a trend that began more than two decades ago, immigration is projected to continue being one of Canada’s primary population drivers over the coming decades.
Accordingly, Statistics Canada projects that the immigrant population in Canada could skyrocket by anywhere from 7.2% and 12.1% between 2016 and 2041.
Using more concrete numbers, StatsCan predicts that the percentage of immigrants in Canada, which was 21.9% in 2016, could balloon to somewhere in the range of 29.1% to 34.0% in the next nearly 19 years — a number that would represent the highest historical level in the country’s 155-year history.
In 2041, if current trends continue, half of the Canadian population will be made up of immigrants and their Canadian-born children
In line with the expected increase in Canada’s immigrant population, it is anticipated that, by 2041, “immigrants and their Canadian-born children” could account for 52.4% of the country’s total population based on the reference scenario used by StatsCan. This would be an increase of 12.4% from 2016 when Canada’s population came in at 14.4 million and the same group made up 40% of that total.
What’s more, is that the above percentage (52.4%) may be just in the middle range of possible outcomes. In fact, it is suggested that the actual number could be as high as 54.3% (with the low-end figure coming in at 49.8%).
This would mean that the number of immigrants and their Canadian-born children in Canada could be somewhere between 23.7 and 25.9 million (according to the projected Canadian population of 47.7 million in 2041).
In 2041, about 2 in 5 Canadians will be part of a racialized group
As StatsCan gets deeper into the specificity of Canada’s projected demographics in 2041, it is revealed that the racialized population in the country could reach between 16.4 and 22.3 million people. This figure would mean that racialized persons in Canada project to account for between 38.2% and 43% of Canada’s total population, up from 22.2% in 2016 (when the number of people in this category was 8 million).
Note: The Canadian government notes that the descriptor used here — “racialized” population — refers to “persons belonging to a visible minority group”, as derived directed from the “visible minority group” variable that has been part of the information collected through Statistics Canada’s Census of Population since 1996.
In 2041, 1 in 4 Canadians will be born in Asia or Africa
From an even more granular perspective, forecasts suggest that 1 in 4 Canadians will be born in either Asia or Africa by the year 2041.
Between 9.9 and 13.9 million African or Asian-born people are estimated to be a part of Canada’s total population in 2041, which would account for anywhere from 23.1% to 26.9% of people in the country. This result would represent a significant increase from 13.5% in 2016.
Immigrants would continue to be concentrated in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver
Thus far, a significant degree of Canada’s demographic makeup is projected to change by 2041. One thing, however, that is expected to remain constant is immigrant preferences regarding where in the country they will choose to settle.
Several key reasons for this continuation include such factors as pressures on the housing market and the development of urban infrastructure. Regardless of the specifics though, the overall sentiment is that Canada’s current reality is not projected to change in the future. The key takeaway from this part of StatsCan’s report is that most of Canada’s immigrants will continue to live in a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and three cities — Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver — will continue to dominate immigrant residence in the coming decades.
What this all means: Canada, a nation of contrasts today, and even more so tomorrow
Generally, the anticipated increase in immigrant movement to Canada is expected to exacerbate present ethnocultural gaps across the country over time.
For instance, the presence of racialized persons is expected to generally increase across the country but remain significantly higher than the national average (over 41%) in the following nine Ontario or central/western Canada CMAs: Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Abbotsford–Mission, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa–Gatineau (Ontario portion), Windsor, and Regina.
On the other hand, the inverse reality is expected to take shape in eastern Canada, Quebec, the country’s rural communities and most of every province’s other CMAs (not identified above) — all places where the proportion of racialized people projects to fall below the national average.
EDMONTON – RCMP say a second suspect has been arrested in the killing of an Alberta county worker.
Mounties say 28-year-old Elijah Strawberry was taken into custody Friday at a house on O’Chiese First Nation.
Colin Hough, a worker with Rocky View County, was shot and killed while on the job on a rural road east of Calgary on Aug. 6.
Another man who worked for Fortis Alberta was shot and wounded, and RCMP said the suspects fled in a Rocky View County work truck.
Police later arrested Arthur Wayne Penner, 35, and charged him with first-degree murder and attempted murder, and a warrant was issued for Strawberry’s arrest.
RCMP also said there was a $10,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of Strawberry, describing him as armed and dangerous.
Chief Supt. Roberta McKale, told a news conference in Edmonton that officers had received tips and information over the last few weeks.
“I don’t know of many members that when were stopped, fuelling up our vehicles, we weren’t keeping an eye out, looking for him,” she said.
But officers had been investigating other cases when they found Strawberry.
“Our investigators were in O’Chiese First Nation at a residence on another matter and the major crimes unit was there working another file and ended up locating him hiding in the residence,” McKale said.
While an investigation is still underway, RCMP say they’re confident both suspects in the case are in police custody.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
RICHMOND, B.C. – The Integrated Homicide Investigation Team says the 26-year-old son of a man found dead on British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has been charged with his murder.
Police say 58-year-old Henry Doyle was found badly injured on a forest service road in Egmont last September and died of his injuries.
The homicide team took over when the BC Coroners Service said the man’s death was suspicious.
It says in a statement that the BC Prosecution Service has approved one count of first-degree murder against the man’s son, Jackson Doyle.
Police say the accused will remain in custody until at least his next court appearance.
The homicide team says investigators remained committed to solving the case with the help of the community of Egmont, the RCMP on the Sunshine Coast and in Richmond, and the Vancouver Police Department.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, have broken off without an agreement following 15 hours of talks.
Joe McCann, president of Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they stayed at the bargaining table with help from a mediator until 2 a.m. Friday and made “some progress.”
However, he says the union negotiators didn’t get an offer that they could recommend to the membership.
McCann says that in some ways they are close to an agreement, but in other areas they are “miles apart.”
About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people who can’t navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last week, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.
McCann asks HandyDART users to be “patient,” since they are trying to get not only a fair contract for workers but also a better service for customers.
He says it’s unclear when the talks will resume, but he hopes next week at the latest.
The employer, Transdev, didn’t reply to an interview request before publication.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
