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From inflation to war, here are the 4 big factors impacting markets and the economy right now – CNBC

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HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif. — There are four big trends impacting the economy and stock market right now, and uncertainty around each is creating challenges for investors, market experts and investment strategists said Monday at the Future Proof wealth conference.

Those high-levels trends are inflation, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, the U.S. dollar’s strength and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, said Barry Ritholtz, chief investment officer and chairman of New York-based Ritholtz Wealth Management.

“The macro environment at present is uncertain,” Anastasia Amoroso, managing director and chief investment strategist at iCapital Network, said.

“We’ve been at this for nine months and what have we really figured out” except that inflation is longer-lasting than expected, she added.

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The Federal Reserve has steadily raised borrowing costs since March this year to tame stubbornly high inflation.

Officials at the U.S. central bank have updated their expectations for how quickly and how much they will raise the benchmark interest rate — the Federal funds rate — to achieve their goal.

That “moving target” has been the biggest challenge this year relative to price volatility in the stock market, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the U.S. SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors.

The war in Ukraine has also had global ripple effects on prices for energy, food and other commodities.

And the U.S. dollar is trading at its strongest in decades relative to currencies such as the euro and the British pound. That strength can “serve as a headwind in many ways,” Arone said. For one, about 45% of the revenue of companies in the S&P 500 Index is generated outside the U.S., and a strong dollar can negatively impact those earnings, he said. Imported goods may become less expensive, but U.S. exports become more expensive for other nations.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve a “soft landing,” whereby higher borrowing costs slow the economy and tame fast-rising consumer prices, but don’t trigger a recession or considerable unemployment.

Fed officials have repeatedly acknowledged the difficulty of that task but Amoroso believes the central bank is in the process of achieving it.

Chipping away at ‘the inflation puzzle’

“We are starting to chip away at pieces of the inflation puzzle,” she said.

U.S. gross domestic product is slowing but “isn’t falling off the cliff,” she explained. Energy prices are moderating, which should over time feed into moderating food prices, she said. (Food prices partly reflect the energy costs involved in transport.) Consumers are also starting to push back on companies for higher airline fares, food prices and other costs, Amoroso said.

“I think it’s getting harder and harder for companies to justify price increases,” she added.

Of course, “the economy isn’t the market, and vice versa,” Arone said.

Often, the stock market will begin to price in an economic recovery well before economic data hit a bottom, as investors look to better days ahead, Arone said. That happened during the pandemic, for example — the stock market hit bottom on March 23 but then swiftly rebounded even in the throes of a health crisis.

The lesson for investors worried about recession: Get ahead of the trend by buying assets that do well in the early stages of an economic rebound, Arone said. Those include value stocks, small-cap stocks and industry sectors like energy, industrials and financials, he added.

As a general theme, Amoroso also recommended buying “when it feels terrible to do so.”

“As bad as things felt and maybe still do, buying things when they’re on sale makes a lot of sense,” she said.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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