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Is Low Supply Keeping Canadian Real Estate Prices High? – RE/MAX News

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A year ago, housing affordability dominated national conversations as the Canadian real estate market exploded in growth, across major urban centres and rural communities alike.

For the last couple of months, it seems like this discussion has shifted, with affordability taking a back seat given recent moderation in the market following the unprecedented “COVID boom.”

The average price for a home in Canada was sold for about $630,000 in July, recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) confirm. This is down five per cent from the same time a year ago. When the red-hot markets of Toronto and Vancouver are removed from the equation, the typical price for a residential property falls to roughly $525,000.

Despite the last several months of falling Canadian real estate prices and rising interest rates, why are prices not returning to pre-pandemic levels? Be it a single-family house or a condominium, residential prices remain elevated following their meteoric surge.

Is a Lack of Supply Still Keeping Prices High in the Canadian Real Estate Market?

According to CREA, residential property sales tumbled by 5.3 per cent month-over-month in July. This represented the fifth straight monthly decline, with transactions down in three-quarters of all local markets.

With demand and home sales means more supply is coming on stream, or existing inventory is sitting on the market longer. However, that increase in offset by demand from several months ago persists.

July saw a continuation of the trends we’ve been watching unfold for a few months now; sales winding down and prices easing in some relatively more expensive parts of the country as well as places where prices rose most over the past two years,” said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA, in a statement. “That said, the demand that was so strong just a few months ago has not gone away, but some buyers will likely stay on the sidelines until they see what happens with borrowing costs and prices.

So, what about supply? The number of new residential listings tumbled 5.3 per cent in July, CREA data found. In addition, months of inventory, which measures the number of months it would take to exhaust current stocks at the present rate of sales activity, surged to 3.4 months by the end of July.

It’s only one month of data at this point, but it suggests that some sellers are also playing the waiting game, and that is with an overall inventory of homes for sale that is still historically low,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, in a news release. “The Bank of Canada is also expected to finish up their remaining rate hikes (100 basis points or so) over the next few months, which five-year fixed mortgage rates have mostly already priced in. We’ve already witnessed a sharp housing market adjustment this year, but it will hopefully be short-lived if conditions continue to show signs of stabilizing.

But new housing construction activity has been robust, increasing by approximately six per cent to 22,229 units in July, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). On a year-to-date basis, however, housing starts have slumped more than five per cent to 134,684 units.

When it comes to fresh supply being built, it is the major urban centres that have witnessed a decline, the CMHC noted.

Monthly SAAR housing starts in Canada’s urban areas declined in July, driven by lower single-detached starts. However, Vancouver and Toronto both registered much stronger declines in multi-unit starts than in single-detached starts, while Montreal saw similarly large declines in both unit types,” said Aled Ab Iorwerth, CMHC’s Deputy Chief Economist, in a news release.

While housing stocks are improving, they are still insufficient to keep up with demand.

For example, new listings in the Ontario real estate market advanced 7.2 per cent year-over-year in August, coming in at 26,500 new residential listings, data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) show. While this is noticeably higher, new listings were seven per cent below the five-year average. Or according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), “inventories remain quite low, but the slow pace of sales has tipped some markets into balanced or even buyers’ market territory.”

As the nation’s population grows amid the federal government’s plan to welcome more than one million immigrants over the next couple of years, demand for Canadian real estate is expected to remain high. Although higher interest rates may minimize some of this demand, the post-pandemic hangover might persist.

Perhaps Jason Mercer, chief market analyst for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), summarized the situation in the Canadian real estate market best: “We’re seeing a gap in the ‘missing middle.’” Until more housing supply comes online, it will prove to be challenging to see prices come down at a level whereby more families and households feel comfortable making that giant leap into homeownership, whether in downtown Toronto or a small town in Atlantic Canada.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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