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Inflation is cooling, but the Bank of Canada isn't done its fight: economists – CP24

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Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press


Published Tuesday, September 20, 2022 7:34PM EDT

OTTAWA – Inflation in Canada is cooling faster than expected, but economists don’t expect the Bank of Canada to back down from its fight just yet.

The annual inflation rate slowed to 7.0 per cent in August, Statistics Canada said Tuesday in its latest monthly consumer price index (CPI) report.

Prior to the release of the report, RBC forecast inflation in August was 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown was largely driven by the price of gasoline falling, however, Canadians are still feeling the pinch at the grocery store. Food prices rose at the fastest rate since 1981 in August, with prices up 10.8 per cent compared with a year ago.

Excluding gasoline prices, year-over-year inflation was 6.3 per cent, making August the first month since June 2021 where annual inflation excluding gasoline has slowed.

“This is about as good of an inflation report as we can hope for,” said BMO’s managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist Benjamin Reitzes in an email to clients.

The Bank of Canada will be paying close attention to its preferred measures of core inflation, which tend to be less volatile and help the bank see through temporary changes in the consumer price index. Those measures all point to a slowdown in annual inflation in August as well.

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economists at Desjardins, said while the latest numbers are good news, the Bank of Canada will likely continue down the path of higher interest rates.

“We don’t think this report suggests that the Bank of Canada is close to calling mission accomplished yet,” he said. “But it certainly is good news, and suggests that inflation is heading in the right direction.”

In a speech delivered on Tuesday afternoon at the University of Waterloo, Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry addressed concerns raised by some that the central bank would need to engineer a substantial economic slowdown, or even a recession, to bring inflation down.

Beaudry said the Bank of Canada believes people set their inflation expectations partly based on past inflation and partly on communication of central banks. The deputy governor said the bank is leaning into effective communication with the public on monetary policy to help alleviate some of the heightened concern about inflation persisting.

“The bank is committed to keeping its communications during this difficult period clear, simple and focused on our inflation mandate,” he said, adding that the more effective the bank is with its communications, the more likely a recession can be avoided.

The Bank of Canada has been laser-focused on bringing down inflation expectations, which were elevated in recent surveys. If people’s expectations start coming down, Bartlett said that may influence the bank’s future rate decisions and general tone on inflation.

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate for the fifth time this year. With the three-quarters of a percentage point hike, the bank’s key rate now sits at 3.25 per cent.

The bank is set to make its next rate announcement on Oct. 26 and has warned more interest rate hikes are needed to bring inflation to its two per cent target.

TD is expecting the Bank of Canada to hike rates again in October and bring its key rate to four per cent by the end of the year.

The latest report on inflation also shows the gap between inflation and wages is narrowing, with average hourly wages up 5.4 per cent in August compared with 7.0 per cent inflation.

Despite the slowdown in headline inflation, the cost of living remains stubbornly high for Canadians.

On a monthly basis, overall consumer prices were slightly lower in August than in July.

Statistics Canada said the 0.3 per cent decline in the CPI from July to August is the largest monthly decline since the early months of the pandemic.

As grocery prices soared in August, prices for bakery goods were up 15.4 per cent while prices for fresh fruit was 13.2 per cent higher than a year ago.

Statistics Canada attributes the acceleration in food prices to continued supply chain disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, extreme weather, and higher input costs.

As for the slowdown in overall inflation, the federal agency said transportation and shelter prices drove the deceleration in consumer prices.

Gas prices were up 22.1 per cent in August compared with a year ago, but down 17.9 per cent since June.

Shelter costs fell slightly from July to August, but remained 6.6 per cent higher than a year ago.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2022.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

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